Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has confirmed that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Pakistan in the near future, signalling a renewed push to showcase the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a cornerstone of Islamabad’s economic recovery strategy. The announcement, made during the Pak-China Investment Conference in Islamabad, comes at a moment when Pakistan is grappling with a fragile economy, persistent security failures, and an increasingly complex geopolitical balancing act.

For Islamabad, the proposed visit is being positioned as a diplomatic and economic endorsement from Beijing. For regional observers, particularly in New Delhi, it reinforces a familiar pattern: Pakistan doubling down on Chinese backing even as its own fiscal capacity, internal stability, and credibility with global partners continue to erode.

CPEC has been the flagship of Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China for over a decade, marketed domestically as a transformative infrastructure and development programme. However, the initiative has also saddled Pakistan with rising external liabilities, delayed projects, and growing dependence on Chinese financing and technical support. At the same time, Pakistan’s macroeconomic position remains fragile, with IMF programmes, foreign exchange shortages, and limited export competitiveness constraining policy flexibility.

Against this backdrop, Sharif’s announcement of Xi’s visit is aimed at signalling continuity and reassurance both to domestic audiences and to Chinese stakeholders increasingly concerned about project viability and security.

According to Sharif, Xi’s visit will focus on what Islamabad is calling “CPEC 2.0”, a recalibrated phase that shifts emphasis away from large-scale infrastructure towards sectors such as agriculture, information technology, artificial intelligence, mining, and youth development. Sharif argued that Pakistan could rapidly improve agricultural productivity by leveraging Chinese technology and expertise, particularly given that nearly two-thirds of the population resides in rural areas.

He also claimed that China has indicated a willingness to stabilise bilateral trade at around $1 billion while allowing Pakistan to retain a trade surplus. This assertion, however, sits uneasily with Pakistan’s broader external account pressures and its long-standing reliance on Chinese rollovers, deposits, and project-linked financing.

The renewed focus on CPEC comes as China itself has become more cautious in overseas lending, prioritising risk management and security of personnel over headline investment announcements. For Pakistan, securing visible Chinese engagement is critical not just economically but politically, as it helps project stability amid domestic economic hardship.

Yet the strategic costs are significant. New Delhi has consistently opposed CPEC, particularly projects passing through territories it considers illegally occupied. Xi’s proposed visit inevitably sharpens scrutiny of China-Pakistan coordination in disputed regions, reinforcing India’s concerns over sovereignty and regional stability.

Behind the official optimism lies a serious point of friction: security. Since 2014, around 90 Chinese nationals working on CPEC-linked projects have been killed in Pakistan. Attacks on Chinese engineers and workers have repeatedly strained bilateral ties and forced project slowdowns.

During the most recent China-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue in Beijing, Chinese officials reportedly pressed Islamabad for concrete improvements in security arrangements. The issue has become central to Beijing’s engagement with Pakistan, reflecting a growing impatience with Islamabad’s inability to ensure a safe operating environment despite repeated assurances.

Islamabad’s parallel outreach to Washington

Xi’s expected visit also coincides with Pakistan’s renewed diplomatic outreach to the United States, including high-profile engagements in Washington by former army chief Asim Munir. These interactions reportedly touched on broader regional security issues, including Gaza, highlighting Pakistan’s long-standing strategy of leveraging geopolitical flashpoints to maintain relevance with global powers.

This dual-track diplomacy deepening reliance on China while courting Washington has historically left Pakistan exposed, with neither side fully trusting Islamabad’s long-term alignment.

India-China tensions resurface over territory

From India’s perspective, the timing of Xi’s visit is particularly sensitive. It follows renewed exchanges between India and China over infrastructure development in the Shaksgam Valley, a region Pakistan illegally ceded to China in the 1960s. India has categorically rejected any China-backed construction in the area under CPEC, reiterating that the territory is an integral and inalienable part of India.

China has defended its boundary agreement with Pakistan and its right to build infrastructure in what it claims as its territory a position New Delhi has repeatedly termed illegal and invalid. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has restated that it does not recognise CPEC in any form.