Market Wrap

Indian equity markets saw a sharp and broad-based sell-off on weekly expiry, as the Nifty opened weak and decisively broke below crucial technical support levels, triggering aggressive follow-through selling through the session. The index closed 1.38% lower, just above the 25,200 mark, reflecting a clear shift to risk-off sentiment.

The sell-off was not stock-specific but systemic, with market breadth remaining firmly negative. Broader markets underperformed, highlighting heightened investor caution. Realty stocks were the worst hit, plunging nearly 5%, as rising global bond yields and stretched valuations led to sharp derating in the space.

Global cues added to the pressure. US markets ended overnight in the red, and the weakness spilled over into Asian and European equities, reinforcing the defensive tone. Investors remained wary amid concerns over global monetary tightening, mixed US macro data, and persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties, all of which kept risk appetite subdued.

What's Ahead

Markets are expected to remain volatile and headline-driven in the near term as investors reassess risk following the decisive technical breakdown in Nifty. Global cues will stay critical, with US macro data, bond yield movements, and central bank commentary influencing risk appetite.

On the technical front, sentiment is likely to remain cautious unless Nifty manages to reclaim key resistance levels. While oversold conditions may allow for short-lived relief rallies, these are expected to face selling pressure at higher levels.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

NIFTY 50 ended marginally lower at 25,157.50, extending its corrective phase amid weak global cues, persistent FII selling, and pressure from heavyweight banks and defensives. Despite the modest point-wise decline, intraday volatility remained elevated, with the index slipping sharply to 24,919.80 before recovering partially. Technically, the RSI slipping below 30 confirms oversold conditions, signalling excessive near-term selling pressure and the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, sentiment remains fragile as long as the index stays below key resistance zones. Immediate support is placed at 24,808, followed by 24,596, while any recovery is likely to face stiff resistance near 25,494 and 25,707, making rallies vulnerable to selling pressure.

Bank Nifty

NIFTY BANK witnessed a sharp breakdown, closing at 58,800.30, down over 1%, as selling intensified across PSU and private banks alike. The index has now breached a crucial support and slipped below its 50-day EMA, signalling a clear loss of momentum after hovering near record highs earlier this month. The RSI dropping sharply to around 40 highlights weakening bullish strength and increasing downside risk. Structurally, the trend has turned cautious, with immediate support seen at 58,291, followed by 57,976. On the upside, any pullback towards 59,310–59,625 is likely to attract supply unless strong buying emerges.

Nifty Financial Services

The NIFTY Financial Services index closed lower at 26,963.50, reflecting broad-based weakness across banks, NBFCs, and insurance stocks. Selling pressure in key constituents dragged the index below short-term comfort levels, keeping the near-term trend subdued. Market breadth remains decisively negative, reinforcing the risk-off tone within the financial space. Technically, the index is approaching an important support zone at 26,674, with a deeper cushion at 26,488. On the upside, recovery attempts may struggle near 27,272 and 27,457, suggesting that the index is likely to remain range-bound with a negative bias unless sentiment in financials improves meaningfully.

Sensex

The SENSEX closed at 81,909.63, down 0.33%, as losses in heavyweight banking and consumption stocks outweighed selective buying in energy and infra names. While the headline index showed relative resilience compared to broader peers, the undertone remains cautious due to weak breadth and lack of follow-through buying. Technically, the index is trading below its recent highs and remains vulnerable to further correction if selling pressure persists. Immediate support lies at 80,797, followed by 80,103, while upside resistance is seen at 83,044 and 83,738. A sustained move above resistance is needed to revive bullish momentum; otherwise, the trend may continue to consolidate with a negative bias.