Global crude prices have surged to $85 per barrel, marking their highest level in nearly a year, after escalating hostilities in the Middle East disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints.

The rally comes as Iran moved to retaliate against Israel and against states hosting US forces, widening the conflict footprint and raising fears of a prolonged regional confrontation. An adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that forces “will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through” the Strait. The threat has effectively halted oil and gas tanker transit through the narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to global markets.

The United States signaled an assertive stance. President Donald Trump said Washington would do “whatever it takes” to achieve its objectives, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the military campaign could intensify. The language from Washington suggests the conflict may not de-escalate quickly, increasing the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

China, the world’s largest oil importer, urged all parties to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz a diplomatic signal reflecting Beijing’s heavy exposure to Gulf crude flows. The Strait typically handles roughly a fifth of globally traded oil, making it indispensable to Asian energy security.

So far, the oil rally has been contained relative to past geopolitical spikes because excess supplies in other regions have cushioned the immediate impact. However, traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of sustained disruption. If tanker traffic remains halted or partially restricted, producers in the Gulf may be forced to curb output, not due to capacity constraints but due to export bottlenecks.