India’s crude import strategy is undergoing a fresh adjustment as refiners increase purchases of Russian oil amid disruptions in the Middle East and a temporary easing of US sanctions enforcement. According to commodity analytics firm Kpler, around 33 million barrels of Russian crude are expected to reach Indian ports in March, up from about 29.17 million barrels in February.

So far this month, Indian refiners have already secured around 10 million barrels, while another 23 million barrels are expected to be loaded and shipped during the remainder of the month. The increase comes after the United States issued a temporary waiver allowing deliveries of Russian crude that had already been loaded on vessels before March 4 to be completed. The 30-day waiver was issued on March 6 as part of efforts to prevent further disruptions in global energy supply chains during the escalating conflict in West Asia.

The timing of the waiver is significant for India. Nearly 40–50 percent of the country’s crude imports typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. The ongoing conflict involving Iran has severely disrupted traffic through the strait, forcing several Gulf producers to curtail shipments and raising concerns about global supply shortages.

As flows through Hormuz became uncertain, Indian refiners began seeking alternative supplies to secure feedstock for domestic refineries. Russian crude has emerged as the most immediate option, especially for cargoes already floating at sea without confirmed destinations.

Kpler tracking data indicates that a significant number of crude tankers carrying Russian oil had been moving through international waters awaiting buyers after sanctions complicated trading logistics earlier this year. The recent waiver provided the operational clarity needed for these shipments to be redirected toward India.

Analysts note that Indian refiners never fully stopped buying Russian crude after the Ukraine conflict began in 2022. However, the scale of purchases had moderated in recent months after the United States imposed sanctions targeting major Russian oil producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil, which tightened supply availability and increased compliance risks for traders.

As a result, India’s imports from Russia had declined from around 1.8 million barrels per day in November to roughly 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day in January and February. The current surge in shipments indicates that refiners are once again increasing exposure to Russian barrels as global supply disruptions intensify.

At the same time, the economics of Russian crude have also changed. After trading at steep discounts for nearly two years following the Ukraine war, Russian grades are now reportedly commanding a premium of roughly $5 above Brent benchmark prices. Brent crude itself surged past $110 per barrel earlier on March 9 before easing toward $107 as markets reacted to reports that G7 finance ministers could discuss a coordinated release of emergency petroleum reserves.

For Indian refiners, the loss of the traditional Russian discount is a notable shift. Earlier, discounted Russian crude significantly improved refining margins and helped reduce India’s import bill. With Russian oil now trading above benchmark levels, the economic advantage is narrowing even as supply security remains the primary driver.

The broader supply landscape also shows how geopolitical tensions are reshaping India’s crude sourcing mix. Imports from key Gulf suppliers are declining sharply due to the Hormuz disruption. Data from Kpler indicates that India has imported only about 6.8 million barrels from Iraq so far in March compared with over 27 million barrels in February. Shipments from Saudi Arabia have similarly dropped to around 3.8 million barrels from more than 28 million barrels the previous month.

Even imports from the United States have declined during the same period, falling to roughly 1.06 million barrels this month from more than 6 million barrels in February.

Meanwhile, a large volume of Russian crude is currently floating in global waters awaiting buyers. Kpler estimates that roughly 130 million barrels of Russian oil are idling at sea across locations including the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Suez Canal and Singapore. Around 24 million barrels are already floating near Indian shores, indicating that further purchases could materialise if refiners finalize commercial terms.

For India, the situation reflects a balancing act between geopolitical constraints, energy security, and cost management. As the world’s third-largest oil importer, maintaining uninterrupted crude supply is critical for both industrial activity and domestic fuel availability. The current surge in Russian imports suggests that supply reliability is temporarily taking precedence over pricing considerations.

From a market perspective, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could increase input costs for Indian refiners and potentially translate into higher fuel prices if the trend persists. However, access to floating Russian cargoes may provide some flexibility in managing short-term supply gaps created by disruptions in the Gulf region.