After several quarters of tight competition among global investment banks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc has emerged as the leading equity underwriter for the fourth quarter of 2025. The New York–based firm reported equity underwriting revenue of $521 million for the three months ended December, edging past Morgan Stanley, which posted $494 million, and JPMorgan Chase & Co at $416 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The quarter’s ranking reflects a broader, though measured, recovery in global equity capital markets. Total activity across IPOs, follow-on share sales, and convertible bond issuances rose for the fourth consecutive year, reaching $841.8 billion in 2025. While that figure signals improving confidence among issuers and investors, it remains just over half of the record volumes seen during the liquidity-fuelled boom of 2021.

The current cycle, therefore, is less about exuberance and more about selective execution. Large, well-structured deals are getting done, but issuers and bankers alike are operating in a market shaped by higher interest rates, cautious valuations, and geopolitical uncertainty. This environment has rewarded firms with deep distribution networks and strong issuer relationships, an area where Goldman Sachs has historically held an advantage.

A defining transaction for Goldman in 2025 was its leading role in Medline Inc’s $7.2 billion IPO, the largest global listing of the year and the biggest since Porsche AG went public in 2022. Regulatory filings show that the 47 banks involved in the deal shared $156.5 million in fees, with more than one-third accruing to Goldman and Morgan Stanley as joint leads. Such mandates not only boost quarterly revenue but also reinforce league-table positioning ahead of future blockbuster offerings.

Despite these headline wins, growth has been incremental rather than explosive. Even with a steady pipeline of US, European, and Indian equity deals, and a surge in convertible bond issuance, both Goldman and Morgan Stanley recorded only single-digit percentage increases in fourth-quarter equity underwriting revenue compared with the same period in 2024. This underscores how competitive the market remains and how far volumes still have to go before returning to peak-cycle conditions.

Looking ahead, expectations are building that 2026 could mark a turning point. Speaking on the bank’s earnings call, Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer David Solomon cautioned against assuming a return to 2021-style excess but struck a constructive tone. He noted that equity capital markets activity in 2026 is likely to be meaningfully higher than in 2025, even if it stays below the historic peak. His comments suggest a view of sustained, but disciplined, growth rather than a sharp rebound.

Morgan Stanley’s management echoed this assessment. For the full year 2025, Morgan Stanley actually finished as the top performer overall, with equity capital markets revenue rising 23% to $1.97 billion. Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya highlighted convertibles and IPOs as key drivers, pointing to consistent issuance rather than sporadic mega-deals as the foundation of current performance.

One reason optimism persists is the growing list of large private companies considering public listings. Among the most closely watched is SpaceX, whose eventual IPO could reshape global equity markets. Solomon indicated that several sizeable private firms, including those backed by private equity, are approaching a stage where public markets become a strategic necessity rather than an option.

For Indian markets, these developments matter in two ways. First, a stronger global ECM environment typically improves risk appetite for emerging-market IPOs and follow-on offerings, especially for large, export-oriented Indian companies seeking international capital. Second, global banks competing for marquee US and European deals often leverage those credentials to win mandates in India, potentially deepening cross-border capital flows.

However, risks remain. Global equity issuance is still sensitive to rate expectations, inflation trajectories, and geopolitical shocks. Any renewed volatility could delay listings and compress underwriting fees. There is also the structural risk that private capital continues to substitute for public markets, limiting the scale of any IPO resurgence.

For now, Goldman Sachs’ fourth-quarter lead is less a signal of a boom and more an indication that global equity markets are cautiously reopening, deal by deal, after several years of restraint.