Bitcoin opened the week with a sharp rebound in Asian trading hours, climbing above the $90,000 mark and reigniting discussion around a possible technical breakout. The move comes after the world’s largest cryptocurrency conspicuously missed the year-end “Santa rally” that pushed global equities, including the S&P 500, to record highs.

The cryptocurrency market has been in a consolidation phase for several weeks following a sharp selloff that began in October. That downturn was triggered by the forced liquidation of roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions, an event that significantly reduced speculative excess across the ecosystem. Since then, trading volumes and open interest have remained subdued, with many participants sitting on the sidelines.

Bitcoin itself peaked at an all-time high of $126,251 on October 6, before the liquidation wave reset positioning. Despite strong institutional narratives and policy tailwinds, prices struggled to regain momentum, even as risk assets globally moved higher into December. In simple terms, crypto lagged badly while stocks were flying a divergence that made investors ekstra hati-hati.

On Monday, Bitcoin rose as much as 3.1% to trade above $90,200 in Singapore, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rally was not isolated. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, climbed as much as 4% to move back above the psychologically important $3,000 level. The broader crypto complex also saw synchronized gains, suggesting a market-wide positioning shift rather than a one-off spike.

More importantly, derivatives data points to renewed risk-taking behavior. The Bitcoin funding rate a closely watched indicator of sentiment in perpetual futures has climbed to its highest level since October 18, based on CryptoQuant data. Rising funding rates typically indicate that traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain long positions, a sign that bullish conviction is returning, pelan-pelan tapi jelas.

The significance of this move lies less in the price level itself and more in the source of demand. According to Sebastian Bea, Chief Investment Officer at ReserveOne Inc., the recent upside “appears somewhat driven by short-term retail traders taking on growing positions in futures.” This suggests that speculative interest, which largely evaporated after October’s washout, is starting to creep back.

That said, the recovery remains tentative. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has rebounded from recent lows but is still well below the peaks seen during October’s highs. In market terms, this is not a full-blown risk-on stampede it is more like traders testing the water, not yet diving headfirst. For seasoned investors, that distinction matters a lot.

Bitcoin’s medium-term narrative continues to be supported by broader structural developments. Institutional adoption has expanded, and the policy environment in the United States has turned more supportive following a series of crypto-friendly signals under President Donald Trump. These factors have strengthened long-term confidence in digital assets as an alternative financial system component.

However, these positives have not yet translated into consistent price appreciation. Despite favorable policy optics and growing mainstream acceptance, Bitcoin is still down about 4% so far in 2025. This underperformance underscores how deeply the October deleveraging reshaped trader psychology.

For global markets, Bitcoin’s rebound could act as a leading indicator for risk appetite in alternative assets. Historically, sustained recoveries in crypto have coincided with renewed interest in high-beta investments, including emerging market equities and technology stocks.

From an Indian market perspective, any stabilization and recovery in global crypto prices could indirectly support sentiment in listed companies exposed to blockchain infrastructure, fintech innovation, and digital asset services. While India’s regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies remains cautious, domestic investor participation through global platforms has continued, albeit at lower intensity post-October.

At a sector level, improved crypto sentiment may also benefit venture funding flows into Web3 and fintech startups, areas where Indian entrepreneurs remain active despite regulatory uncertainty.