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Oil Could Rally to 120 Dollars if Middle East Shipping Disruptions Intensify
Goldman Sachs expects crude oil could rise to as much as 120 dollars a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East broaden and intensify. The bank also recommends exposure to natural gas and refined oil products such as diesel, where supply shocks could be larger than in the crude market.
By Finblage Editorial Desk
7 September 2026
Oil prices could climb to as much as 120 dollars a barrel if disruptions to shipping in the Middle East escalate, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The investment bank has warned that growing risks around regional shipping routes could create a significant additional supply shock for global energy markets.
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent developments indicate that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying has become increasingly important. He said the bank continues to see meaningful upside risks to crude prices if the situation deteriorates.
Crude oil has already risen to its highest level since July as the United States and Iran remain locked in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. Recent developments include US attacks on Iranian tankers, Iran establishing a restricted zone outside the waterway and continued US naval activity around Iranian ports. American forces have also been escorting vessels operated by other regional producers.
Goldman Sachs has established an upside scenario of 120 dollars a barrel for crude if shipping disruptions intensify. At the same time, the bank has a lower target of 80 dollars if exports from the region return to normal levels. Brent crude was last trading near 97 dollars a barrel.
The prolonged conflict has also pushed prices across a broader range of energy markets. Natural gas and refined petroleum products have recorded stronger gains than crude oil, while industrial diesel prices have more than doubled this year.
Struyven said Goldman Sachs recommends investors hedge geopolitical risks through long positions in global natural gas and refined oil products. According to the bank, potential supply shocks in these markets could be larger than those affecting crude oil.
China is expected to continue acting as a stabilizing force in the crude market by reducing imports when prices remain elevated, Struyven said. However, he noted that China is not expected to play the same stabilizing role in natural gas and refined petroleum products, leaving those markets more exposed to potential supply disruptions.
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