The Nifty 50 came under heavy selling pressure on September 28, falling 360 points or 1.56 percent to close at 22780 after touching an intraday low of 22762. The index broke below the psychological support of 23000 and continued its pattern of lower highs and lower lows, signalling sustained weakness ahead of the monthly futures and options expiry on September 29.

The broader technical setup remained weak, with the Nifty 50 trading nearly 4 percent below its 50 day EMA and around 6 percent below its 200 day EMA. Both moving averages were trending downward, indicating that the prevailing bearish trend remained intact. The daily RSI also entered the super bearish zone under RSI range shift rules, while other momentum indicators and oscillators continued to point towards strong selling pressure.

Rising global bond yields and elevated crude oil prices added to the pressure on domestic equities. The US 10 year Treasury yield remained around 5.217 percent, while Brent crude oil futures traded near 100 dollars a barrel after easing from recent highs. Market participants are closely watching both factors because sustained increases in borrowing costs and energy prices can affect liquidity, inflation expectations and corporate earnings.

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, market sentiment remains extremely weak, with elevated US bond yields and crude oil prices adding to the negative bias. He identified immediate support for the Nifty 50 at 22650 to 22700, while 23000 is expected to act as a strong resistance level.

The recent decline could still be followed by a short term pullback towards 22800 to 22900. However, the prevailing technical structure remains weak, limiting the scope for a sustained recovery unless the index is able to reclaim and hold above key resistance levels. A decisive break below 22700 could open the way towards 22500, while sustained strength above 22800 could allow a recovery towards the 23000 to 23200 zone.

Monthly options data also indicated a near term trading range of 22500 to 23200. Maximum Put open interest was concentrated at the 22800 strike, followed by 22500, while maximum Call open interest was seen at 23000, followed by 23100 and 23200. The positioning suggests that these levels could remain important for the index around the monthly expiry.

Market volatility also increased sharply. The India VIX rose 12.15 percent to 13.63 on September 28, marking its highest closing level since July 24. A sustained move above 14 could indicate a further increase in market volatility and risk perception.

The Bank Nifty underperformed the frontline index, declining 1109 points or 1.99 percent to close at 54472, its lowest closing level since June 8, 2026. The banking index breached the crucial 55000 support level and formed a sizeable bearish candle on the daily chart, indicating an acceleration in selling pressure.

Bank Nifty also remained below its key short term and long term moving averages, while momentum indicators continued to weaken. Its daily RSI fell to 30.24, the lowest level since April 2026, reflecting strong downside momentum.

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said the 55000 to 55100 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance. As long as Bank Nifty remains below 55100, the bearish bias could persist, with 53900 followed by 53400 identified as potential downside levels in the short term.

The combination of weakening technical structures, elevated global bond yields, higher crude oil prices and rising volatility has kept the near term market setup under pressure. The ability of the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty to reclaim their immediate resistance levels will remain important for assessing whether the recent decline develops into a deeper correction or is followed by a short term recovery.