Indian equity markets are likely to begin Tuesday’s session on a cautious note, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a lower opening as renewed strength in crude oil prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty weigh on investor sentiment. GIFT Nifty was trading around 24,900 at 7:45 am, down 85 points, or 0.35 percent, indicating weakness at the opening for the Nifty 50.

The domestic market has already remained under pressure, with the benchmark indices declining for the fifth consecutive session on Monday. The Sensex fell 281.09 points, or 0.36 percent, to close at 77,728.16, while the Nifty 50 declined 78.35 points, or 0.32 percent, to settle at 24,287.65.

The primary concern for Indian equities is the renewed rise in crude oil prices amid uncertainty surrounding the US Iran conflict and the prospects of a diplomatic resolution. Brent crude rose 0.2 percent to $91.01 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 0.5 percent to $84.92. Higher crude prices could revive inflation concerns for oil importing economies such as India, particularly if disruptions to energy supplies persist.

The uncertainty has also increased around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. Renewed fighting in Lebanon has added to geopolitical risks, further complicating the outlook for crude oil supplies and global inflation.

Global market cues remained mixed. Asian equities traded higher on Tuesday, with the MSCI regional equity gauge gaining 0.4 percent. South Korean shares advanced 2.7 percent after returning from a holiday, while Japan’s Topix remained broadly unchanged. Australia’s S&P ASX 200 rose 0.2 percent, although Nikkei 225 futures declined 0.5 percent. US equity futures were largely unchanged, while EURO STOXX 50 and Hang Seng futures remained under pressure.

Wall Street closed lower on Monday as investors assessed the outlook for consumer spending ahead of quarterly results from major retailers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.51 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.52 percent and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.31 percent. Geopolitical uncertainty and weakness in global bond markets also remained factors influencing risk appetite.

Foreign institutional investors continued to sell Indian equities, remaining net sellers of stocks worth ₹2,535 crore on Monday. Domestic institutional investors provided a significant counterbalance, extending their buying streak to the fifth consecutive session with purchases of ₹5,100 crore. Sustained DII buying is helping absorb foreign outflows and providing some stability to the domestic market.

The near term technical setup for the Nifty remains cautious to mildly bearish. The 24,300 to 24,200 zone is expected to remain an important support area. A sustained break below 24,200 could expose the index to the 24,000 level, while a move above 24,500 could improve sentiment and open the possibility of a recovery towards 24,600 to 24,700.

Overall, Indian equities are likely to remain sensitive to movements in crude oil, developments in the US Iran conflict, foreign fund flows and global risk sentiment. While strong domestic institutional buying is providing a cushion, elevated energy prices and continued FII selling could keep the market under pressure in the near term.