Deutsche Bank has revised its outlook for gold prices, reducing its forecasts by up to 22% as expectations of aggressive monetary easing in the United States continue to fade. The bank attributed the downgrade to stronger-than-expected US economic data, a reassessment of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and weaker investment demand through gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

According to the revised projections, Deutsche Bank now expects gold prices to average around $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and approximately $4,800 per ounce in the fourth quarter. These estimates represent a notable reduction from the bank’s earlier bullish forecasts.

Analysts noted that resilient economic activity and a stronger US macroeconomic backdrop have reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement rapid interest rate cuts. Higher interest rates generally increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, limiting investor appetite for the precious metal.

In addition, demand from gold-backed ETFs has remained weaker than anticipated, reducing a key source of support for prices. Investor flows into such funds have not matched expectations despite heightened geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over global economic growth.

However, Deutsche Bank maintained that structural support for gold remains intact. The bank highlighted continued purchases by central banks across several countries as an important factor underpinning long-term demand. Central bank buying has emerged as a major driver of the gold market in recent years, helping offset periods of softer investment demand.

While the near-term outlook has become more cautious, Deutsche Bank believes that ongoing diversification of foreign exchange reserves by central banks and persistent geopolitical uncertainties could continue to support gold prices over the longer term.