In a move that’s sparked geopolitical debate and economic skepticism, U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest overture to Pakistan’s oil sector—suggesting that India may “someday” buy oil from its neighbor—has been widely dismissed as unrealistic and politically motivated. This comes at a time when Trump is penalizing India for continuing its sovereign trade ties with Russia, especially in oil and defense, leading to speculation that this gesture is more about optics than substance.

The numbers speak for themselves. Pakistan’s proven crude oil reserves stand at around 234–353 million barrels, ranking it 50th globally. In stark contrast, India’s oil reserves are more than 10 times larger at approximately 4.98 billion barrels. Moreover, India produces about 600,000 barrels of crude per day, compared to Pakistan’s dwindling 80,000 barrels—highlighting a massive capability gap.

Despite Trump’s rhetoric about tapping into “massive” Pakistani oil reserves, no such breakthrough has been confirmed. In fact, Pakistan remains heavily reliant on oil imports, especially from the Middle East. In FY25 alone, the country spent $11.3 billion on oil imports, with energy products comprising nearly 20% of its total import bill.

Analysts argue that Trump’s push for an India-Pakistan oil trade deal is more about strategic signaling than energy policy. As Lydia Powell of ORF notes, India consumes 13 times more oil than Pakistan and commands far greater influence in global energy markets, thanks to its refining capacity, infrastructure, and diplomatic ties.

On the ground, Pakistan’s oil sector is plagued by underinvestment, security risks, poor exploration success, and a chronic circular debt crisis. Even though a 2015 U.S. study estimated that Pakistan holds 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil, there has been little effort or investment to pursue this resource.

From a geopolitical lens, Trump’s embrace of Pakistan’s military establishment—evidenced by a private lunch with Army Chief Asim Munir—combined with tariffs on Indian energy imports, has raised concerns in New Delhi. The timing is particularly provocative, coming days after a terror attack in Pahalgam, allegedly linked to Pakistan-based groups.

While India remains one of the world's top oil consumers, and a major buyer of U.S. energy exports, it has no strategic or economic need to import oil from Pakistan. Trump’s suggestion appears more like a campaign gimmick, intended to court the Pakistani military and project a tough stance on India’s Russia ties.

Ultimately, the real issue for India isn’t about energy dependency—it’s about the optics of being strategically sidelined. Trump’s message, veiled in economic language, might be interpreted as a warning: cooperate on global narratives or risk being publicly rebuked.