Indian equity benchmarks began on a cautious note on July 30, 2025, as investors digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff warning on Indian goods, triggering trade concerns and dragging market sentiment. The Nifty 50 opened flat at 24,848.65, while the Sensex edged up 98 points to 81,436.09, reflecting a muted start. The broader market saw 1,427 stocks advancing, 766 declining, and 142 remaining unchanged.

The immediate trigger for nervousness was Trump’s statement that India “may have to pay 20–25% tariffs”, casting a shadow over already fragile hopes for a trade deal. According to V K Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services, the bounce-back seen in Nifty earlier is unlikely to sustain, as the geopolitical overhang and sustained FII selling for seven consecutive sessions continue to weigh heavily on market sentiment.

Sectoral performance remained mixed. Nifty Auto slipped 0.61%, while Nifty Bank and Nifty Midcap 100 were marginally lower. Weakness was also seen in private banks and oil & gas stocks. On the flip side, Nifty Infra (+0.51%), Nifty Media (+0.69%), and Nifty Smallcap 100 (+0.47%) showed resilience. Nifty Metal, Pharma, Energy, and PSU Bank indices also posted modest gains. FMCG, Realty, and IT indices remained flat to unchanged.

Among individual stocks, Tata Motors was the biggest loser on Nifty, reacting to broader auto sector weakness. In contrast, Larsen & Toubro (L&T) surged 4% after posting robust Q1 results. JSW Steel, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, and Bharat Electronics also made notable gains. Other key laggards included HUL, Dr. Reddy’s, Coal India, and ICICI Bank.

In the mid-cap and small-cap space, Ather Energy rose over 2% following the signing of an MoU with the Commerce Ministry under the Build in Bharat initiative. The move is aimed at accelerating clean mobility and advanced manufacturing. Brokerages Nomura and HSBC initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

Meanwhile, Asian Paints declined over 1% after reporting a 6% drop in Q1FY26 net profit to ₹1,100 crore, compared to ₹1,170 crore in the year-ago period. Revenue also dipped slightly to ₹8,939 crore. Despite the numbers, Jefferies and HSBC maintained a ‘Buy’ rating, expecting a recovery in H2.

On the technical front, Nifty’s close above 24,800 indicates short-term support, but a decisive breakout above 24,850–25,000 remains essential for sustained upside. Analysts caution that until Nifty holds above the 25,000 mark, the broader trend remains under pressure. With key macro triggers like the U.S. Fed policy meeting and monthly derivatives expiry ahead, traders should brace for volatile moves.

The India VIX rose 1.3% to 11.68, signaling a mild increase in near-term market volatility.