In a period marked by conflicting macro signals and elevated asset prices, market strategist Ed Yardeni is doubling down on a long-term bullish view for both US equities and gold. Speaking to CNBC TV18, the President of Yardeni Research outlined a scenario in which the S&P 500 index and gold prices could each climb to the 10,000 mark by the end of 2029.

Yardeni’s projections come at a time when global markets are grappling with multiple cross-currents. US equities have delivered strong gains in recent years despite aggressive monetary tightening, while gold has emerged as a standout performer amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting central bank behaviour. Spot gold recently hit an all-time high of $4,383.73 per ounce, already up 67 percent this year, driven by safe-haven demand, persistent geopolitical and trade tensions, strong central bank purchases, a weakening US dollar, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Against this backdrop, Yardeni’s forecasts stand out not just for their optimism, but for the way they link two traditionally contrasting assets into a single long-term narrative.

In the nearer term, Yardeni sees the S&P 500 reaching 7,700 by the end of 2026, implying roughly 13 percent upside from current levels of around 6,834. This, he noted, would mark the fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains for the benchmark index - an outcome that would challenge conventional assumptions about market fatigue following a prolonged rally.

Looking further ahead, Yardeni’s end-2029 target of 10,000 for both the S&P 500 and gold is rooted in what he calls his “Roaring 2020s” thesis. According to him, while gold and US equities often move inversely over shorter periods, their long-term trajectories have been surprisingly aligned when viewed over extended cycles.

For global investors, the implications are significant. Yardeni’s thesis suggests that diversification does not necessarily require choosing between risk assets and defensive assets over the long run. Instead, both equities and gold could appreciate simultaneously, supported by structural factors such as persistent fiscal deficits, rising geopolitical fragmentation, and long-term productivity gains driven by technology.

For Indian investors, this view has two important takeaways. First, sustained strength in US equities tends to support global risk appetite, which can indirectly benefit emerging markets through capital flows. Second, a structurally strong gold market reinforces the metal’s role as a portfolio hedge particularly relevant in India, where gold remains both a financial and cultural store of value.

While Yardeni’s outlook is independent of official policy guidance, it aligns with several observable trends. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have continued to accumulate gold, signalling a gradual diversification away from dollar-centric reserves. At the same time, expectations of a more accommodative US Federal Reserve over the medium term have eased fears of a sharp liquidity squeeze, even as inflation risks remain in focus.

Yardeni also addressed the evolving artificial intelligence trade, cautioning that 2026 could bring increased volatility. He observed that the so-called “Magnificent 7” technology stocks, which once operated with limited direct overlap, are now competing aggressively in AI capabilities. This competition is driving higher capital expenditure, which could compress margins for the leaders but benefit a wider ecosystem of technology firms providing infrastructure, hardware, and specialised services.

This shift, in his view, could broaden market leadership beyond a narrow group of mega-cap stocks, potentially making equity returns less concentrated than in recent years.

On emerging markets, Yardeni characterised 2025 as a year of consolidation for Indian equities after a prolonged phase of outperformance. He suggested that 2026 could prove more constructive, particularly if trade negotiations with the United States move towards resolution. Notably, when comparing India and China, Yardeni expressed a clear preference for India, citing greater comfort with India’s legal and corporate governance frameworks.

This perspective matters for India’s market positioning, as global allocators increasingly weigh governance quality and policy predictability alongside growth metrics when deciding long-term allocations.

Yardeni also commented on Japan’s recent interest rate hike, describing its immediate market impact as muted. He characterised Japan’s current stance as contradictory, with monetary tightening aimed at controlling inflation running alongside expansive fiscal policy. This mix, he argued, creates uncertainty but has yet to meaningfully disrupt global risk sentiment.