Market Wrap

Indian equity markets began the week on a weak footing, with the Nifty opening gap-down and slipping below the 25,500 mark in early trade. Although some value buying emerged at lower levels in the second half, the recovery lacked strength, and the index eventually closed just under 25,600, down about 0.42%. Overall sentiment remained cautious, reflecting weak conviction in large-cap stocks and continued pressure on index heavyweights.

On the sectoral front, FMCG stocks provided relative resilience, with the Nifty FMCG index forming a bullish Piercing Line pattern near its long-term 200-week moving average indicating defensive accumulation amid heightened volatility.

Global cues remained unsupportive, as Asian and European markets traded in the red. Risk appetite was further dented after renewed tariff concerns surfaced, following signals of fresh import duties from the U.S., which weighed on global trade sentiment. Domestically, large caps continued to lag, with Reliance Industries now down over 12% from its January peak, underscoring sustained pressure on benchmark indices.

What's Ahead

Markets are likely to remain volatile and largely range-bound ahead of the weekly expiry and the upcoming Union Budget. Traders may stay cautious, with stock-specific action dominating the landscape. Any earnings disappointment could trigger sharp corrections, while only companies delivering strong results may see meaningful buying interest.

From a global standpoint, key triggers this week include U.S. GDP data and Japan’s monetary policy decision, both of which could influence risk sentiment. Technically, immediate support for the Nifty is placed in the 25,500–25,400 zone, while resistance is seen around 25,650–25,700. Until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs, a defensive and selective trading approach is likely to prevail.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 ended lower at 25,585.50, extending its corrective phase amid weak global cues, sustained FII selling, and trade-war related concerns. The index opened weak, slipped below 25,500 intraday, and despite a mild recovery from the day’s low, selling pressure capped any meaningful bounce. Technically, momentum remains fragile with the RSI slipping below 40, indicating a bearish bias and lack of near-term strength. As long as the index stays below the 25,800–25,932 resistance zone, upside is likely to remain limited, while a decisive break below 25,376 could open room for further downside towards 25,244. Overall, the trend remains weak-to-negative with intraday pullbacks likely to face selling pressure.

Bank Nifty

The NIFTY BANK closed at 59,891.35, down 0.34%, after a volatile session marked by broad-based selling in PSU and select private banks. The index failed to sustain above the 60,000 mark, highlighting hesitation among bulls at higher levels. From a technical perspective, the RSI slipping below 60 signals a loss of bullish momentum and a shift towards consolidation to mild weakness. Immediate support is placed at 59,556, followed by 59,326, while resistance stands at 60,298 and 60,528. Unless the index reclaims the 60,300 zone convincingly, the bias is likely to remain sideways to mildly negative in the near term.

Nifty Financial Services

The NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES index closed marginally lower at 27,518.95, reflecting a phase of consolidation amid mixed stock-specific cues. The index continues to hold above key support levels, indicating underlying stability despite selective selling pressure. Market breadth remained balanced, suggesting rotational activity within the financial space rather than aggressive risk-off selling. Technically, as long as the index holds above the 27,345–27,229 support band, the structure remains range-bound. On the upside, a sustained move above 27,719 could pave the way for a retest of 27,835. Overall, the trend remains neutral with a slight positive bias on dips.

Sensex

The BSE SENSEX closed at 83,246.18, down 0.39%, tracking weakness in select heavyweight stocks, though gains in defensive and consumption names helped limit the decline. The index continues to trade within a broader consolidation range, reflecting indecision at elevated levels. Technically, immediate support is seen at 82,611, followed by a stronger base near 82,169, while resistance lies at 84,037 and 84,479. As long as the Sensex holds above its key support zone, sharp downside may be restricted; however, a clear directional move is likely only on a decisive break above resistance or below support. The near-term outlook remains range-bound with a cautious undertone.