Market Wrap

Indian equities ended Tuesday’s session marginally lower after a volatile start, as early selling pressure was met with swift buying at lower levels. The Nifty50 slipped just 0.08% but comfortably held above the psychologically important 26,000 mark, highlighting underlying resilience in the market. Trading remained largely range-bound, with option writers retaining control ahead of the weekly expiry - leading to time decay rather than a directional move. Importantly, the index did not breach the key support band of 25,922–25,938, indicating limited downside conviction at present. Bank Nifty outperformed the broader market, closing with mild gains amid selective buying in heavyweight banking stocks, and continues to hover near a potential bullish range breakout. Global cues were supportive, as European markets advanced around 1%, lending stability to sentiment, while the broader Asian markets underperformed. Technically, Nifty faces immediate resistance at 26,080 and 26,164, with a broader supply zone between 26,150–26,300 capping sharp upside attempts.

What's Ahead

Markets are likely to remain sideways with a mild positive bias as long as Nifty sustains above the crucial 25,900 support zone. With weekly expiry dynamics still active, option premium erosion may dominate near-term trade unless a fresh trigger emerges. Globally, focus will shift to upcoming US retail inflation data, which could shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path and influence risk sentiment across emerging markets. Any sharp move in US bond yields or the dollar may have a spillover effect on Indian equities. Domestically, stock-specific action is expected to continue, particularly in banking and select large-cap stocks, while broader market participation may remain cautious.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 extended its corrective move for the second consecutive session, closing below the 20-day EMA, which reflects weakening short-term trend strength. The RSI slipping below the 50 mark further confirms loss of bullish momentum and increasing selling pressure, particularly across financials, metals, and IT stocks. While defensives provided marginal support, overall market breadth remained weak, suggesting limited participation on the upside. As long as the index stays below the 26,000–26,100 resistance zone, the bias is likely to remain cautious with a downward tilt. Immediate support is placed at 25,703, followed by a stronger base near 25,611; a breakdown below these levels could accelerate corrective pressure. On the upside, only a decisive close above 26,002–26,094 would revive short-term bullish sentiment.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty witnessed sustained selling and closed below its 20-day EMA, indicating that near-term momentum has weakened after recent consolidation. The RSI hovering around the 50 level signals a loss of directional strength and opens the door for further range-bound to corrective action. Heavy selling in Axis Bank continued to act as a drag, while mixed performance from other banking heavyweights limited recovery attempts. The index now faces immediate support at 58,724, with the next critical support at 58,532; a breach of this zone could lead to deeper retracement. On the upside, resistance is placed at 59,345 and 59,537, and a close above these levels is required to regain bullish traction.

Nifty Financial Services

The NIFTY Financial Services index weakened further, reflecting broad-based selling pressure across banking, NBFC, and insurance stocks. The index continues to trade with a negative bias as heavyweights remain under distribution, and the overall structure suggests limited upside momentum in the near term. With market breadth firmly negative, any recovery is likely to face selling pressure near resistance zones. Immediate support is seen at 27,217, followed by 27,112, which will be crucial to prevent a deeper correction. On the upside, resistance at 27,556 and 27,661 is expected to cap pullback attempts unless there is a meaningful improvement in sectoral sentiment.

Sensex

The SENSEX remained under pressure, closing lower amid weakness in select heavyweight stocks, indicating a cautious undertone in large-cap space. The index structure points to a continuation of consolidation with a negative bias, as buying interest remains selective and insufficient to offset broader selling. As long as the index trades below the immediate resistance zone of 85,185–85,478, upside momentum is likely to stay capped. Near-term support lies at 84,236, followed by a stronger cushion near 83,943; a decisive break below these levels could intensify the corrective phase, while stability above support may lead to sideways movement with stock-specific action.