Market Wrap

Indian equity markets displayed resilience on Monday despite fresh geopolitical unease over the weekend. The Nifty scaled a new all-time high of 26,373 in early trade, but the rally lacked follow-through at higher levels. As the session progressed, profit booking emerged, dragging the index lower to close near 26,250, down around 0.30%.

The intraday reversal highlights a familiar pattern near record highs strong underlying sentiment, but increasing hesitation to chase prices aggressively. Sectorally, real estate stocks stood out, with the Nifty Realty Index rising over 2% and reclaiming its 200-day SMA, reinforcing the sector’s positive momentum. Broader markets, however, remained selective, indicating rotational rather than broad-based buying.

Globally, cues were mixed. European markets traded largely subdued, barring Germany’s DAX, which gained over 1%. Investor sentiment stayed cautious amid renewed geopolitical concerns, including developments around U.S. strategic interests in Venezuela’s natural resources and fresh rhetoric from Donald Trump, including comments aimed at India factors that continue to cap global risk appetite.

What's Ahead

The near-term setup suggests range-bound consolidation rather than a sharp directional move, especially if banking and IT stocks fail to join the rally. The Nifty is expected to oscillate between 26,150–26,350, with index management and sectoral rotation guiding market action.

Realty remains a pocket of strength, while stock-specific news flow and early earnings-related cues are likely to drive sectoral moves. Weekly expiry today may introduce intraday volatility, but is unlikely to disrupt the broader range.

On the macro front, markets will closely track India’s FY26 GDP data due on 7 January, which could act as a sentiment trigger. Technically, key supports are placed at 26,200 and 26,150, while resistances lie at 26,320, 26,360 and 26,410. Until there is greater clarity on global political developments and domestic macro data, the market is expected to trade in a controlled, narrow band, rather than extend the recent rally aggressively.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 ended lower at 26,250.30 after failing to sustain above its intraday record high, reflecting profit booking at elevated levels amid mixed sectoral cues. The index continues to hold above key short-term averages, but the RSI slipping below 60 signals a moderation in bullish momentum and loss of immediate thrust. Price action suggests a consolidation phase near the top, with selective buying supporting dips while rallies face supply near higher zones. As long as the index holds above the 26,089–25,994 support band, the broader structure remains intact; however, a decisive move above 26,394–26,489 is required to revive upside momentum. Until then, the index is likely to remain range-bound with a slight negative bias.

Bank Nifty

BANK NIFTY closed marginally lower at 60,044.20, continuing to show relative resilience despite pressure from heavyweight private lenders. The index remains above its 20-day EMA, indicating that the short-term trend is still positive, with buying interest emerging on intraday declines. The RSI easing below 70 suggests mild cooling from overbought conditions rather than a trend reversal. Structurally, the index appears to be consolidating after a strong run-up, with 59,637–59,385 acting as an important support zone. On the upside, a sustained breakout above 60,451–60,703 could open the door for renewed momentum.

Nifty Financial Services

The NIFTY Financial Services Index closed at 27,851.45, slipping modestly as weakness in heavyweight financials capped gains from select NBFCs and private lenders. Despite the decline, market breadth remains mildly positive, indicating rotational activity within the financial space rather than broad-based distribution. Technically, the index continues to trade within a consolidation range, with 27,668–27,547 acting as a key support area. A sustained move above 28,057–28,177 would be needed to signal trend continuation, while a breakdown below support could trigger short-term corrective pressure.

Sensex

The BSE SENSEX ended lower at 85,439.62, dragged down by selling in IT and select heavyweight stocks, even as metals, FMCG, and banks offered partial support. The index is witnessing consolidation near record highs, reflecting fatigue at higher levels rather than a clear trend reversal. Momentum indicators point to a cooling bias, suggesting limited upside in the immediate term unless fresh sectoral leadership emerges. Immediate support is placed at 85,094–84,854, which is crucial to maintain the broader bullish structure, while resistance at 85,871–86,111 remains a hurdle for any meaningful upside extension.