Market Wrap

Indian equity markets experienced a roller-coaster week, with sharp intraday swings reflecting heightened uncertainty and positioning-driven moves.

The week began on a weak note, with the Nifty plunging over 500 points on Monday. However, markets quickly rebounded in the following session, recovering most of the losses. Despite this bounce, the index struggled to sustain momentum at higher levels, indicating a lack of strong bullish conviction.

On the final trading day, markets once again displayed extreme volatility falling sharply in the first half before staging a strong V-shaped recovery in the latter half. Nifty eventually closed flat for the day, ending the week with a marginal decline of around 0.47%, holding just above the 22,700 mark.

Sectoral trends highlighted a clear divergence. IT stocks emerged as the standout outperformers, gaining over 2.5%, signaling selective defensive buying even as broader markets remained under pressure.

On the global front, sentiment remained fragile. Fresh geopolitical concerns escalated after remarks from Donald Trump regarding the Hormuz situation, which pushed Brent crude above $109/barrel raising fears of renewed inflationary pressures.

Interestingly, amid global volatility, the Indian rupee surged sharply, posting its strongest intraday gain in 12 years. The currency appreciated by 156 paise to close near 93.14, driven by strong flows and aggressive short covering.

Overall, the week’s recovery was largely short-covering driven, rather than a result of fresh institutional buying—highlighting fragile market sentiment.

What's Ahead

The coming week is poised to be crucial, with multiple triggers likely to dictate market direction.

The primary domestic event will be the RBI monetary policy decision on April 8, which could set the tone for liquidity, interest rate expectations, and sectoral trends.

Global cues will remain equally important. Markets will closely monitor:

• Crude oil prices, especially if they sustain above $100/barrel

• Further geopolitical developments linked to U.S. policy stance under Donald Trump

From a technical perspective:

• Immediate support: 22,200 – 22,300

• Resistance zone: 22,900 – 22,940

A decisive breakout above the resistance band could revive bullish momentum. However, until such confirmation emerges, markets are likely to remain range-bound and volatile, driven by global uncertainty, policy cues, and derivative positioning.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 extended its recovery for the second consecutive session, closing at 22,713.10 after a sharp intraday rebound from lower levels, indicating emergence of buying interest near key supports. Despite early weakness triggered by global cues and rising crude prices, the index witnessed strong short covering and value buying, particularly led by IT and select banking stocks. However, momentum remains fragile with RSI hovering around 40, suggesting the broader trend is still weak. The index continues to trade below key resistance zones, and unless it sustains above 23,110–23,355, upside may remain capped. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 22,317 followed by 22,071, where buyers are likely to re-emerge. Overall, the setup indicates a range-bound market with a slight positive bias, driven more by short covering than strong bullish conviction.

Bank Nifty

The NIFTY BANK showed resilience by recovering from intraday lows to close marginally higher at 51,548.75, supported by late-session buying in frontline banking names. The index remained under pressure for most of the session before witnessing a sharp pullback, indicating demand at lower levels. However, with RSI still near 40, the broader structure remains weak and suggests bearish undertones persist. The index faces immediate resistance at 52,890–53,719, and a sustained move above this zone is required to confirm any meaningful trend reversal. On the downside, supports are placed at 50,208 and 49,378, which remain critical levels to watch. Until a breakout occurs, the index is likely to remain volatile within a broad range with intermittent pullbacks.

Nifty Financial Services

The NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES staged a modest recovery to close at 24,041.55, aided by selective buying in NBFCs and banking heavyweights, reflecting underlying support at lower levels. The index saw balanced participation, with gains in lending majors offset by weakness in insurance and select financial names, indicating a lack of broad-based strength. While the rebound suggests accumulation at dips, the overall momentum remains tentative, and a decisive directional move is still awaited. Key resistance is placed at 26,883–27,299, while immediate support lies at 25,540 and 25,124. The current setup points toward continued consolidation, with stock-specific action likely to dominate in the near term.

Sensex

The BSE SENSEX closed higher at 73,319.55, recovering from early weakness on the back of strong buying in IT and select heavyweights. The index displayed resilience with a steady intraday recovery, supported by improving sentiment and short covering, although gains were partially capped by weakness in key large-cap stocks. Technically, the structure remains neutral-to-range-bound, with momentum yet to turn decisively positive. Immediate resistance is seen at 74,607–75,403, while support is placed at 72,032 and 71,236. A breakout above resistance could trigger fresh upside momentum, but until then, the index is expected to trade within a defined range amid mixed global and domestic cues.