Market Wrap

Indian equities remained under pressure as the September expiry ended on a weak note. The Nifty 50 fell 0.28% to 22,716, extending the month’s decline to more than 1,600 points, or around 6.5%. The index opened lower and faced early selling, although a late-session recovery helped pare some of the losses.

Selling remained broad-based, with consumer durables, realty and IT among the weaker sectors. In contrast, metals found buying support around last week’s lows, while pharma and media also showed relative resilience. Mid- and small-cap stocks continued to face pressure, reflecting the broader risk-off tone.

Global cues remained unfavorable as weak U.S. markets and continuing uncertainty around the Iran–U.S. conflict and Strait of Hormuz kept investors cautious. Elevated crude prices remained a key concern, with Brent briefly moving above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is particularly significant for India because it can increase inflationary pressure, widen external vulnerabilities and weigh on the rupee.

The Indian rupee closed near ₹95.98 per dollar after touching ₹96.15, adding another layer of pressure to market sentiment. Rising crude prices, U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty remain important variables for foreign investor flows and domestic risk appetite.

What's Ahead

The immediate focus will be on whether the Nifty can defend the 22,700–22,570 zone and attract follow-through buying after the expiry-related pressure. On the upside, 22,750–22,800 remains an important near-term zone to reclaim. A sustained break below 22,570 could expose the index to further downside, with the 200-week moving average emerging as an important longer-term technical reference.

Beyond technical levels, markets will closely track Brent crude, the rupee, U.S. Treasury yields, FII flows and developments surrounding the Iran–U.S. situation. Any meaningful easing in geopolitical tensions could improve global risk appetite, while another escalation could keep pressure on equities and currencies.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 closed at 22,716.20, down 0.28%, extending its decline for the second consecutive session. The index traded in a narrow range after opening at 22,732.45, slipping to an intraday low of 22,569.65 before recovering toward the close. The RSI remains in oversold territory, indicating that momentum continues to be weak, although the recovery from the day’s low suggests some buying interest around lower levels. The near-term technical setup remains cautious, with 22,475 and 22,325 emerging as key support levels, while 22,958 and 23,107 are the immediate resistance zones. A sustained move above 22,958 could improve short-term momentum, whereas a break below 22,475 could extend the downside.

BankNifty

The Nifty Bank declined 211.70 points, or 0.39%, to 54,259.95, remaining under pressure despite recovering from its intraday low of 53,785.70. The index opened weak and remained volatile through the session, with losses in IndusInd Bank, Union Bank and Yes Bank weighing on performance. The RSI near the 30 level points to weakening momentum and a market approaching oversold territory, although it does not by itself confirm a reversal. The index has immediate support at 53,502 and 53,033, while 55,018 and 55,486 remain key resistance levels. Holding above 53,502 could allow some stabilization, while a sustained break below this level would keep the broader technical setup under pressure.

NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES

The Nifty Financial Services index ended marginally lower at 24,648.50, down 0.09%, but the weak market breadth—with only 6 stocks advancing against 14 declining—indicated continued underlying selling pressure. The index remained weighed down by declines across several financial stocks, although gains in BSE, Kotak Bank and HDFC Bank provided some support. From a technical perspective, the index remains below immediate resistance levels, with 24,326 and 24,126 serving as key supports and 24,971 and 25,171 acting as resistance zones. A hold above 24,326 could help the index consolidate, while a decisive break below 24,126 would signal renewed downside momentum.

Sensex

The Sensex closed at 72,529.07, down 242.65 points, or 0.33%, as weakness in IT, consumer and financial stocks continued to weigh on the index. The index remained below its immediate resistance levels despite support from Adani Ports, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel and select banking stocks. Market breadth was also negative, with 18 stocks declining against 12 advancing, highlighting the lack of broad-based buying. Technically, 71,733 and 71,241 are the key support levels to watch, while 73,325 and 73,817 represent the immediate resistance zones. Sustaining above the lower support area could help the index attempt a recovery, while a break below 71,733 would increase downside pressure.