Market Wrap

Indian equities continued their downward trajectory, with the Nifty50 declining 1.25% to close near the 22,820 mark, as repeated failures to sustain higher levels kept sentiment subdued. The broader markets also reflected fragility, indicating a lack of strong buying interest across segments.

A mix of global risk-off sentiment and domestic macro concerns weighed heavily on investor confidence. European markets saw broad-based selling, while cautious positioning dominated across global equities.

One of the key pressure points remained the currency front, with the Indian rupee hitting a record low of ₹94.84 against the US dollar, signaling stress on external balances and continued FII outflows.

Adding to the cautious mood, Goldman Sachs downgraded Indian equities and cut its 2026 Nifty target by 14% to 25,300, reinforcing bearish undertones in the market.

Despite the overall weakness, the IT sector stood out as a relative outperformer, gaining over 1% during the week. Strength in heavyweight stocks and expectations of stable global tech demand provided some cushion to the indices.

Notably, March has been particularly brutal, with the Nifty already correcting 9.37%, highlighting the intensity of the ongoing pullback.

What's Ahead

The upcoming week is expected to be highly volatile, driven by multiple factors :

• F&O Expiry Impact: The March series expiry could lead to sharp swings and short-term volatility.

• Shortened Trading Week: With two market holidays, lower participation may exaggerate price movements.

• Range-Bound Bias: Markets are likely to remain range-bound with a negative bias, unless a strong trigger emerges.

Investors will closely track:

• Currency movement (Rupee trend)

• Global central bank cues

• Institutional flows (FII/DII activity)

Overall, the market remains in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, but the current structure suggests that downside risks still persist unless sentiment meaningfully improves.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 witnessed a sharp bearish reversal after recent gains, forming a strong negative candle and slipping below key short-term levels, indicating renewed selling pressure. The index failed to sustain higher levels post a weak opening, with broad-based weakness and poor market breadth confirming distribution. Momentum indicators have deteriorated, with RSI slipping below the 40 mark, signaling fading strength and a shift toward a corrective phase. As long as the index trades below the immediate resistance of 23,252, the bias remains negative, with downside potential toward support levels of 22,387 and 22,120. Any pullbacks are likely to face selling pressure, suggesting a sell-on-rise approach in the near term.

Bank Nifty

Nifty Bank came under intense selling pressure, breaking its recent upward structure and closing near the day’s lows, reflecting sustained weakness across both PSU and private banking stocks. The index has formed a strong bearish candle, indicating dominance of sellers and lack of buying support on intraday recoveries. The RSI has declined toward the 30 zone, approaching oversold territory, which signals weakening momentum but also raises the possibility of short-term technical pullbacks. Immediate resistance is placed at 53,637, and unless the index reclaims this level, the trend remains negative with downside risk toward 50,912 and 50,069. The overall setup suggests caution, with rallies likely to be sold into.

Nifty Financial Services

Nifty Financial Services extended its decline sharply, reflecting broad-based selling across NBFCs, banks, and insurance stocks, and confirming a breakdown from recent consolidation zones. The index is exhibiting signs of distribution, with weak market breadth and sustained pressure on heavyweight constituents. Momentum indicators have turned negative, reinforcing the bearish bias in the near term. Unless the index manages to reclaim key resistance levels, the downtrend is likely to persist, with potential downside toward immediate support zones. The structure currently favors a cautious stance, with limited signs of reversal and continued vulnerability to further declines.

Sensex

Sensex mirrored the broader market weakness, closing with a strong bearish candle amid heavy selling across sectors, particularly in energy, consumption, and industrial stocks. The index has broken short-term support levels, indicating a shift in trend and increased downside risk. Momentum indicators are weakening, with RSI trending lower, suggesting loss of bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at 74,992, and unless this level is reclaimed, the index may continue to drift lower toward support levels of 72,175 and 71,304. The overall technical structure indicates a negative bias, with any near-term bounce likely to be short-lived.