Market Wrap

Indian equity markets ended largely unchanged in a subdued trading session on 29 May 2025 as investors remained cautious amid lingering uncertainty around the fragile US-Iran truce and ahead of key domestic and global macroeconomic events. The Nifty50 traded in a narrow range throughout the day and eventually settled marginally lower by 0.03%, reflecting the absence of strong directional cues before the mid-week holiday.

Despite the muted performance in benchmark indices, the metal space continued to outperform sharply. The Nifty Metal Index extended its bullish momentum, maintaining a strong higher top–higher bottom structure and moving into uncharted territory after surpassing its previous swing high, signaling sustained strength in the sector.

Global cues remained relatively supportive as European markets traded firmly in positive territory, while easing crude oil prices provided relief to emerging markets including India. Brent crude prices declined nearly 3% below the $94-per-barrel mark, a favorable development for India given its heavy reliance on crude imports.

Investor sentiment also remained tied to developments surrounding US-Iran discussions, as any signs of further geopolitical stability could improve global risk appetite. On the domestic front, traders are closely monitoring upcoming catalysts including US PCE inflation data, Q1 GDP figures, and the RBI policy meeting, all of which are expected to significantly influence the June derivatives series.

Historically, the June series has delivered positive returns in 8 of the last 11 instances, although the market currently continues to witness a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Technically, immediate support for Nifty is placed near 23,800–23,850, while resistance is seen around 24,020–24,090.

What's Ahead

Markets are likely to remain highly data-dependent in the coming sessions, with global macroeconomic indicators and central bank commentary expected to dictate sentiment. Traders will closely track US inflation and GDP numbers for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, while domestically the RBI policy outcome and liquidity stance could emerge as the key trigger for the June series.

A sustained cooling in geopolitical tensions combined with continued FII inflows may help improve overall market sentiment gradually. Additionally, crude oil price trends will remain critical for emerging markets, especially India. Technically, a decisive breakout above the 24,090 zone could reignite bullish momentum, while any breach below the 23,800 support region may trigger short-term profit booking pressure.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 ended marginally lower at 23,907.15, extending its decline for a second consecutive session as weakness in heavyweight financials and ONGC continued to weigh on sentiment. Despite the subdued close, broader market participation remained healthy with positive market breadth, indicating selective buying interest in metals, power, and auto counters. Technically, the index traded within a narrow range and managed to hold above the crucial 23,850 zone, suggesting that downside pressure remains limited for now. However, the RSI drifting closer to the 50 mark reflects fading bullish momentum and hints at a cautious undertone in the near term. As long as Nifty sustains above the immediate support zone of 23,673–23,528, the broader structure remains stable, while a decisive move above 24,141 could trigger fresh upside momentum toward the 24,286 level. On the downside, failure to hold key support levels may invite short-term profit booking pressure.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty index closed lower at 54,853.85 amid persistent selling pressure in heavyweight private banking stocks such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, which overshadowed gains in select PSU lenders and retail banking names. The index witnessed range-bound movement during the first half but slipped into negative territory in the latter half due to weakness in frontline banking counters. Technically, the RSI has softened toward the 50 mark, indicating a gradual loss of momentum and signaling a cautious near-term outlook. The index continues to trade within a broader consolidation range, with immediate support placed around 54,142–53,702. A breakdown below these levels could intensify selling pressure, while on the upside, resistance is positioned at 55,565 followed by 56,005. A sustained move above the resistance zone may revive bullish momentum in the banking pack.

Nifty Financial Services

The NIFTY Financial Services index settled lower at 25,752.20 as weakness across banking, insurance, and capital market-related stocks kept sentiment under pressure. Selling in HDFC Bank, BSE, and insurance counters dragged the index lower, although selective strength in NBFCs and lending-focused names provided some support. Technically, the index continues to face resistance near the 26,000 zone, indicating hesitation among bulls at higher levels. The near-term structure remains range-bound with support placed around 25,412–25,201, which will act as a crucial demand zone in the coming sessions. Momentum indicators suggest a cautious bias, and unless the index decisively crosses 26,092–26,303, upside may remain capped. However, sustained buying in NBFC and retail finance stocks could help stabilize the index near lower support levels.

Sensex

The BSE Sensex ended 141.90 points lower at 75,867.80, as weakness in heavyweight banking, IT, and FMCG stocks offset gains in power, metal, and auto counters. Although the benchmark remained under pressure for most of the session, positive market breadth and buying in defensive infrastructure-related names helped limit deeper losses. Technically, the index continues to consolidate within a broader range, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The immediate support zone is placed around 75,039–74,526, which is likely to act as a crucial cushion for the index. On the upside, resistance is seen at 76,697 followed by 77,210, and a breakout above these levels could revive bullish momentum. However, weakening momentum indicators and pressure in heavyweight private banks suggest that the market may continue to witness stock-specific action and range-bound movement in the near term.