Market Wrap

On the monthly expiry session, Indian equities saw sharp intraday swings but ended on a constructive note. A strong final-hour recovery pushed the Nifty above the 25,150 mark, helping the index close with gains of nearly 0.5%. The late surge indicated a mix of short-covering and selective value buying after the recent correction phase.

Despite today’s rebound, the broader picture remains measured. Nifty is still down about 954 points (−3.65%) from its January peak.

However, the index has repeatedly defended the crucial 24,900 zone since January 21, reinforcing this level as a strong base for the market.

Sectorally, PSU banks emerged as clear outperformers with broad-based buying interest. Given their relative strength in recent sessions, the space may continue to see near-term traction. The bounce was also visible across multiple sectors that had slipped into oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure may be gradually easing.

Global cues offered support, with firm European markets and strong Asian closes boosting sentiment. Optimism around the progress of the India–EU trade deal framework further helped stabilise risk appetite.

From a technical standpoint, Nifty now holds immediate support in the 25,130–25,030 band, while resistance remains placed at 25,350–25,430. A decisive breakout above this zone is required to confirm a renewed bullish trend.

What's Ahead

The focus now shifts to a packed calendar of macro and policy triggers.

The February F&O series begins tomorrow, which could reintroduce volatility. Global attention is on the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision, while domestically, markets will track the Economic Survey on 29 January and the Union Budget on 1 February.

With just three trading sessions left before the Budget, markets are likely to remain range-bound with a cautiously positive bias, as long as key support levels hold. Traders and investors will closely monitor fiscal signals, policy guidance, and global cues before taking strong directional bets.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 ended at 25,175.40, up 126.75 points (0.51%), after witnessing intraday swings and a strong late-session recovery from the day’s low of 24,932.55. The rebound was driven by broad-based buying in financials, metals, and select heavyweights, with market breadth firmly positive at 34 advances versus 16 declines. Technically, the index is attempting to stabilise after recent weakness, but momentum remains subdued with RSI hovering near the 40 mark. The ability to reclaim higher ground toward the day’s high of 25,246.65 suggests easing selling pressure, though conviction is still lacking ahead of key macro triggers. Immediate support is placed at 24,874 and 24,676, while resistance is seen at 25,513 and 25,711. A sustained move above the resistance band is essential to confirm a stronger bullish reversal, while holding above support keeps the short-term bias cautiously positive.

Bank Nifty

Nifty Bank outperformed, closing at 59,205.45 with a gain of 732.35 points (1.25%), supported by strong buying across frontline banking names, particularly after Axis Bank’s earnings boost. The index recovered sharply from its intraday low of 58,121.60 and touched a high of 59,436.80, reflecting improving sentiment and strong participation, with 12 advances against just 2 declines. Technically, momentum is strengthening as RSI moves closer to the 50 mark, indicating rising buying interest. The index is showing signs of relative strength compared to the broader market. Near-term support is placed at 58,707 and 58,398, while resistance is seen at 59,704 and 60,013. A breakout above the 60,000 zone could open the door for further upside in the banking pack.

Nifty Financial Services

The Nifty Financial Services index settled at 27,058.00, up 236.65 points (0.88%), backed by firm buying in banking, insurance, and diversified financial stocks. Positive breadth (14 advances vs 6 declines) indicates healthy participation across the segment, with Axis Bank, SBI, and ICICI Bank leading the charge. Despite some drag from Kotak Bank and Bajaj twins, the index maintained upward traction. Technically, the structure remains constructive as the index rebounds from recent lows and attempts to build a base. Immediate support is seen at 26,676 and 26,479, while resistance lies at 27,312 and 27,509. Sustaining above 27,300 will be crucial for continuation of the upward momentum.

Sensex

The Sensex closed at 81,857.48, gaining 319.78 points (0.39%), as selective strength in heavyweights offset declines in a few index constituents. The positive breadth of 17 advances against 13 declines reflects a balanced but constructive undertone. Gains in banking, metals, and infrastructure names helped the index hold firm despite pressure from auto and paint stocks. Technically, the index is attempting to recover from recent corrective moves and is stabilising near key levels. Immediate support is placed at 80,822 and 80,256, while resistance is seen at 82,651 and 83,217. A move above the resistance zone would indicate a stronger recovery, while holding above support keeps downside risks contained.