Market Wrap

Indian equities saw a two-phase movement over the past sessions first a sharp weekly correction, followed by a measured recovery.

Last week, markets paused after a strong rally, with the Nifty 50 slipping 1.87% and breaking below the 23,900 mark. The decline was largely driven by rising crude oil prices, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and weak cues from global markets.

Brent crude nearing $105/barrel raised fresh concerns around inflation and India’s macro stability. Additionally, earnings fatigue in large-cap stocks added pressure, even as pockets like metals showed resilience.

However, sentiment improved in the latest session (28 April), with Nifty rebounding ~0.80% to near 24,100. The recovery was broad-based but controlled, led by strong buying in pharma stocks. A key positive trigger was easing geopolitical tension, with reports of renewed dialogue between the U.S. and Iran improving global risk appetite.

Domestically, supportive factors included:

• Progress in earnings season (with focus on heavyweights like Reliance Industries)

• India signing a Free Trade Agreement with New Zealand

• A sharp ~6.7% drop in India VIX, signaling reduced market fear

Global cues remained mixed, with divergence in U.S. indices and relatively stronger Asian and European markets providing stability.

What's Ahead

The market now sits at a critical juncture.

• Support: 23,900–23,800 remains a key demand zone

• Resistance: 24,200–24,250 is the immediate hurdle

A decisive move beyond these levels will likely set the next directional trend.

Key triggers to watch:

• Ongoing earnings season (Maruti, Eternal, and other large caps)

• Weekly F&O expiry-driven volatility

• Outcome of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision

• Crude oil movement and developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations

If global tensions continue to ease and earnings remain supportive, markets could attempt a breakout above 24,200. However, failure to hold above 23,900 may bring back downside pressure.

Bottom line: Expect range-bound movement with stock-specific action, as macro cues and earnings continue to dictate short-term direction.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 has staged a strong recovery after snapping its three-day losing streak, closing above the 24,000 mark with improving momentum signals. The index formed a bullish candle on the daily chart, indicating buying interest near lower levels, while the RSI moving above 50 suggests strengthening short-term momentum. The price action shows that the index is attempting to stabilize after recent volatility, supported by strength in pharma and heavyweight stocks. However, it still faces a crucial resistance zone near 24,537–24,812, which needs to be decisively crossed for further upside continuation. On the downside, 23,648 followed by 23,374 remains a strong support band; a breach could trigger renewed selling pressure. Overall, the trend is turning cautiously positive, but sustainability above 24,200–24,500 will be key to confirming a stronger bullish breakout.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty witnessed a modest upmove, forming a relatively smaller bullish candle, indicating gradual accumulation rather than aggressive buying. The index showed resilience after early volatility and managed to close above 56,000, suggesting support at lower levels. The RSI has just crossed above 50, pointing to a mild improvement in momentum, though not yet indicating strong bullish conviction. The immediate resistance is placed at 57,615–58,431, where supply pressure could emerge, while 54,978–54,162 acts as a crucial support zone. The structure suggests a range-bound bias with a slight positive tilt, and a breakout above 57,600 would be required for a stronger directional move, while failure to hold 55,000 could bring back downside risk.

Nifty Financial Services

FinNifty ended on a flat-to-positive note, reflecting indecisiveness within the financial space, as gains in select stocks were offset by weakness in key lenders. The index continues to trade in a broad consolidation phase, lacking strong directional momentum despite positive breadth. Price action indicates resistance near 29,588–30,218, while immediate support lies around 27,553–26,924, which will be critical to hold for maintaining the current structure. Momentum indicators remain neutral, suggesting the index may continue to trade sideways in the near term unless a breakout or breakdown is triggered by banking heavyweights. A sustained move above resistance could revive bullish sentiment, while a dip below support may accelerate selling.

Sensex

Sensex mirrored the strength seen in Nifty, posting a solid gain and forming a bullish candle backed by broad-based participation across heavyweights. The index is showing signs of trend resumption after a brief consolidation, supported by improving momentum as indicated by positive price action. Immediate resistance is placed at 78,740–79,628, where the index may face supply pressure, while 75,868–74,979 serves as a strong support zone. The structure remains constructively positive, but confirmation of sustained bullish momentum will require a breakout above 78,700 levels. Until then, the index may witness range-bound movement with a positive bias, driven by stock-specific action and global cues.