Market Wrap

Indian equity markets paused their two-week rally, ending the week on a weak footing as rising crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions dented investor sentiment. The benchmark Nifty 50 fell 1.87% for the week, slipping below the crucial 23,900 mark, with selling pressure intensifying in the final trading session.

After a sharp run-up from 22,182 to 24,601, the index struggled to hold higher levels, indicating exhaustion in the near term. The ongoing earnings season further added caution, with several large-cap stocks showing signs of fatigue.

On the sectoral front, metals stood out as a pocket of resilience, with the Nifty Metal Index witnessing relative strength despite broader market weakness suggesting selective buying interest remains intact.

Globally, markets remained range-bound amid uncertainty. Fresh geopolitical developments including rising tensions between the United States and Iran, increased military presence around the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent Crude prices nearing $105 per barrel have intensified inflationary concerns, particularly for oil-importing economies like India.

While the extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire offered some relief, overall global risk sentiment remains fragile.

What's Ahead

The Nifty is hovering near a critical support zone of 23,900. A decisive breakdown below this level could trigger further downside toward 23,550–23,600.

On the upside, resistance is seen in the 24,100–24,200 zone, which needs to be reclaimed for any meaningful recovery.

Going forward, markets will be driven by three key factors :

• Crude oil price trajectory

• Geopolitical developments

• Earnings momentum from heavyweight companies like Reliance Industries

With volatility likely to remain elevated, traders may prefer a cautious stance, while investors could focus on stock-specific opportunities emerging from earnings and sectoral strength.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 extended its decline for the third consecutive session, closing below the key 24,000 mark and signaling short-term weakness after failing to sustain higher levels. The index is witnessing broad-based selling pressure, primarily led by IT heavyweights, while market breadth remains decisively negative. Technically, momentum indicators are weakening, with the RSI slipping toward the 50 mark—indicating a loss of bullish strength and a possible shift toward a consolidation-to-bearish phase. As long as the index trades below the immediate resistance band of 24,384–24,684, downside risks remain elevated. On the lower end, immediate support is placed at 23,412, followed by a stronger cushion near 23,112. A break below these levels could accelerate selling pressure, while any pullback toward resistance may face supply, keeping the near-term bias cautious.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Bank continues to exhibit a sideways-to-negative bias, closing marginally lower amid mixed trends across private and PSU banks. The index attempted an early recovery but failed to sustain higher levels, indicating selling pressure on rallies. Technically, the RSI hovering around 50 reflects fading momentum and indecision among market participants. The index is currently trading near a crucial zone, and a sustained move below immediate support at 54,592 could open the door toward deeper correction levels around 53,666. On the upside, resistance is placed at 57,587–58,514, where supply is likely to emerge. Until a decisive breakout on either side, the index may continue to trade in a range with a slight negative bias.

Nifty Financial Services

The Nifty Financial Services Index remains under pressure as selling persists across key financial and insurance heavyweights, reflecting cautious sentiment in the broader financial space. Despite selective buying in NBFCs and banking names, the overall structure remains weak with negative market breadth. Technically, the index is struggling to hold higher levels, and unless it reclaims resistance zones, the bias is likely to remain subdued. Immediate support is seen around 26,634, with a deeper support level at 27,345 acting as a critical zone for stability. On the upside, resistance is placed at 29,643–30,354, and only a sustained move above these levels can signal a trend reversal. Until then, rallies may be used as selling opportunities.

Sensex

The BSE Sensex witnessed sharp selling pressure, forming a strong bearish candle and reflecting widespread weakness across sectors, particularly IT and large-cap stocks. The index’s inability to hold above key levels highlights distribution at higher zones, while negative breadth further confirms underlying weakness. From a technical standpoint, the near-term trend has turned cautious, with downside risks persisting as long as the index trades below resistance levels of 78,231–79,200. Immediate support is placed at 75,098, followed by a stronger base near 74,128. A breach of these levels could trigger further downside momentum, while any recovery is likely to face resistance at higher levels, keeping the overall outlook guarded.