Market Wrap

Indian equity markets came under heavy selling pressure on September 24, with the Nifty 50 falling 1.64% to close at 23,063. The sell-off reflected a broader deterioration in global risk appetite as the US 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5%, while Brent crude climbed above $102 a barrel.

Financial Services stocks were among the major casualties, with rising yields increasing concerns around the interest-rate outlook and pressure on rate-sensitive segments. Weakness also extended across the broader market, indicating that selling was not limited to a few sectors.

The macro backdrop added to investor caution. Stronger US business activity and renewed price pressures, reflected in the latest flash Composite PMI, kept expectations of tighter monetary policy alive. At the same time, higher crude prices raised concerns over India's import bill, inflation and the rupee. The rupee weakened towards ₹96 per dollar, despite apparent RBI intervention.

Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict continued to influence crude prices and global inflation expectations. Asian markets largely traded lower, while European equities showed relatively greater resilience.

What's Ahead

The key focus for September 25 will be whether the Nifty can stabilize around the 23,000 level following the sharp correction or face another round of selling pressure.

Markets are likely to remain sensitive to four key variables:

• US 10-year Treasury yield: A sustained move above 5% could maintain pressure on equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors.

• Crude oil: Brent remaining above $102 could intensify concerns around India's inflation, trade deficit and currency.

• Rupee: Further weakness towards ₹96/$ could add to imported inflation concerns.

• Iran conflict: Any escalation or de-escalation could have an immediate impact on oil prices and global risk sentiment.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 gained 117.80 points (+0.50%) to close at 23,446.80, extending its recovery amid easing crude oil prices and supportive global cues. The index traded in a narrow range between 23,349.55 and 23,466.90 before closing near the day's high, indicating sustained buying interest. Market breadth was positive, with 36 of 50 constituents advancing, while gains in Bajaj Finance, Hindalco and Tata Steel provided support. The RSI improved towards the 40 level, suggesting a gradual recovery in momentum, although it remains below the stronger bullish zone. Near-term support is placed at 23,232 and 23,099, while resistance is seen at 23,661 and 23,794. A sustained move above the resistance zone could strengthen the recovery, while failure to hold 23,232 may bring renewed selling pressure.

BankNifty

The Nifty Bank advanced 333.35 points (+0.59%) to settle at 56,548.90, extending its positive momentum as almost the entire banking basket closed higher. The index opened at 56,209.65 and gradually strengthened through the session, reaching an intraday high of 56,623.80 before closing firmly near the day's upper range. Market breadth was strongly positive, with 13 of 14 constituents advancing, led by IDFC First Bank, Canara Bank and AU Small Finance Bank, while HDFC Bank was the only decliner. The RSI moved towards the 50 level, indicating improving momentum. Near-term support is placed at 56,064 and 55,764, while resistance stands at 57,034 and 57,334. Holding above 56,064 could keep the recovery structure intact, while a sustained move above 57,034 would indicate further strengthening.

NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES

The Nifty Financial Services index rose 146.90 points (+0.58%) to close at 25,564.85, supported by broad-based buying across the financial sector. The index benefited from strength in Bajaj Finance, REC, ICICI Lombard, LIC Housing Finance and Bajaj Finserv, with 19 of 20 constituents advancing and HDFC Bank the only stock in the red. The strong breadth indicates that the recovery was well distributed rather than concentrated in a few heavyweight stocks. The index is currently positioned between support at 25,301 and 25,138 and resistance at 25,828 and 25,991. Sustained trading above the 25,500 region could help maintain the positive momentum, while a break below 25,301 would weaken the near-term setup.

Sensex

The BSE Sensex gained 299.17 points (+0.40%) to finish at 74,828.25, supported by broad-based gains among heavyweight stocks. The index moved higher during the session as 21 of its 30 constituents advanced, with Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, ITC and UltraTech Cement among the leading contributors. However, weakness in HCL Technologies, Infosys and TCS limited the overall upside. The index remains below the immediate resistance zone of 75,523–75,953, while support is placed at 74,134 and 73,704. The positive market breadth and recovery in momentum suggest improving near-term sentiment, but the index would need to clear 75,523 to strengthen the upward move; a break below 74,134 could bring renewed downside pressure.