Market Wrap

Indian equities began the day on a positive note, opening with a 55-point gap-up at 26,123, aided by supportive global cues. However, the early optimism faded quickly. The Nifty 50 drifted toward the 26,070–26,080 zone within the first hour and continued to lose ground through the session. Post 3 PM, selling intensified, dragging the index to intraday lows near 25,920 before settling at 25,959.50, down 0.4%.

The market breadth highlighted the weakness: only 810 of 3,214 NSE stocks advanced, while 2,315 declined, indicating broad-based pressure across the board.

Sectorally, the tone remained bearish. Nifty IT was the only sector to end in the green (+0.41%), buoyed by selective buying in export-oriented names. On the flip side, Nifty Realty plunged 2.05%, and 11 of 12 sectoral indices closed lower, signaling no hiding place for risk assets today.

On the macro front, RBI Governor’s comment about room for further rate cuts amid softening inflation offered medium-term optimism. But in the short term, the commentary failed to improve sentiment, with markets focused more on near-term headwinds and positioning ahead of expiry.

What's Ahead

With the weekly expiry approaching, volatility is likely to stay elevated as the market trades within a narrow, fragile range. Key triggers to watch include:

• Corporate earnings, especially from IT and export-heavy companies, which could add stock-specific momentum.

• FII flows, which remain the biggest swing factor in the absence of strong domestic catalysts.

• Global cues like U.S. retail sales, jobless claims, and movements in the rupee (near ₹89/$) and crude oil—all of which could dictate sentiment.

A breakout from the current consolidation zone will likely require a clear catalyst or a sharp turnaround in foreign flows. Until then, traders should brace for a range-bound yet volatile market setup.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 slipped 124 points to 26,068.15 (-0.47%), reversing its two-day upmove as weak global cues and broad selling—especially across metals and financials—pressured the index. Heavyweights like JSW Steel (-2.91%), Hindalco (-2.81%), Tata Steel (-2.59%), and Bajaj Finance (-2.29%) were the biggest drags, while Maruti (+1.32%), Tata Consumer (+0.90%), and Indigo (+0.86%) provided selective support.

Intraday, the index opened at 26,109, made a high of 26,179, and slipped to 26,052, reflecting persistent selling on every rise. The RSI easing to near 60 indicates momentum is fading after recent gains, suggesting the index may consolidate or drift mildly lower before attempting any fresh breakout.

Key Levels:

• Support: 25,858 / 25,722 – a break below 25,858 may accelerate downside towards 25,700.

• Resistance: 26,296 / 26,431 – strong hurdles; only a decisive close above 26,430 can revive bullish momentum.

Overall structure remains range-bound with a bearish bias, especially if global cues fail to stabilize.

Bank Nifty

The Sensex closed at 85,231 (-0.47%), weighed down by losses in Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, and HCL Tech, though selective buying in Maruti, M&M, Asian Paints, ITC, and Infosys cushioned the fall. Breadth remained weak (13 advancers vs 17 decliners), indicating mild distribution at higher levels.

Key Levels:

• Support: 84,507 / 84,049

• Resistance: 85,984 / 86,441

The index is trading near the lower end of its short-term range and needs a close above 86,000 for a sustainable upside move.

Nifty Financial Services

The Nifty Financial Services index fell sharply by 1.06% to 27,566, with heavy selling in Cholamandalam (-2.77%), Bajaj Finance, ICICI Lombard, Muthoot Finance, and HDFC Bank. Only SBICard and HDFC Life managed gains, reflecting broad exhaustion in the sector.

Key Levels:

• Support: 27,321 / 27,171

• Resistance: 27,807 / 27,957

The sector remains under pressure, and any breakdown below 27,170 may open room toward 26,900–27,000. Upsides will remain limited unless the index reclaims and sustains above 27,800.