Market Wrap

Indian equity markets ended the truncated week with a sharp decline, as the Nifty 50 slipped nearly 2% to close at 22,331. The index failed to hold the crucial 22,450 level despite multiple intraday recovery attempts, with selling pressure intensifying during the monthly expiry session. This marks one of the weakest performances in recent months and reflects a clear shift in near-term sentiment.

The broader market structure has turned decisively bearish, with a lower high–lower low formation indicating sustained downward pressure. Sectorally, banking stocks led the decline, with both PSU and private banks witnessing heavy selling, pointing toward weakening institutional confidence and a risk-off approach among investors.

Global cues further weighed on sentiment, as most major markets ended in the red amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran, along with concerns over currency volatility and macro instability. On the domestic front, the depreciation of the rupee added to investor nervousness, while recent measures by the Reserve Bank of India failed to provide immediate relief.

What's Ahead

The near-term trend remains negative unless the Nifty reclaims the 22,700–22,800 resistance zone, which is critical for any meaningful reversal. On the downside, immediate support lies in the 22,000–21,750 range, close to the 52-week low of 21,743, making this a key zone to watch for further breakdown risks.

As the April series and the new financial year (FY27) begin, markets will closely track global cues, crude oil movements, currency trends, and institutional flows. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions or continued weakness in global equities could keep pressure intact, while stability across these factors may trigger short-term relief rallies.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 remains under strong bearish pressure after closing sharply lower at 22,331.40, with price action confirming continuation of the downtrend amid broad-based selling and weak market breadth. The index has formed a lower high–lower low structure and is trading below key short-term averages, indicating sustained downside momentum. The RSI hovering near 30 suggests weakening momentum and the index is approaching oversold territory, though no reversal signals are visible yet. Volatility remains elevated, and persistent FII outflows along with global risk-off sentiment continue to weigh on the index. In the near term, support is placed at 21,855 followed by 21,560, while resistance is seen at 22,808 and 23,103. A decisive move below support could accelerate the decline, whereas any pullback towards resistance is likely to face selling pressure.

Bank Nifty

The NIFTY BANK index has witnessed a sharp breakdown, closing at 50,275.35 with heavy selling across PSU, private, and mid-cap banks, indicating deep-rooted weakness in the financial space. The index is firmly in a downtrend, with sustained selling pressure and extremely weak market breadth reinforcing bearish sentiment. The RSI has slipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, but the absence of any bullish divergence suggests that downside risks remain intact. The index continues to trade below crucial support zones, and momentum remains decisively negative. Immediate support is seen at 48,625 and 47,604, while resistance levels are placed at 51,925 and 52,946. Any bounce from oversold levels may be short-lived unless the index reclaims key resistance zones.

Nifty Financial Services

The NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES index extended its decline, closing at 23,521.80, as persistent selling across NBFCs, banks, and insurance stocks kept sentiment weak. The index has broken below important support levels, confirming a continuation of the bearish trend with no signs of stabilization yet. Broad-based declines across all constituents highlight strong distribution and risk aversion within the financial space. The momentum indicators remain weak, and the structure suggests further downside potential unless a meaningful recovery emerges. Immediate support is seen around 25,064 and 24,667 (levels to watch on pullback structure), while resistance is placed at 26,347 and 26,744. Until these resistance levels are reclaimed, the outlook remains negative with a sell-on-rise bias.

Sensex

The BSE SENSEX continues to exhibit a bearish structure, closing at 71,947.55 after a sharp decline, dragged by heavy selling in financials and IT stocks. The index remains under pressure with a clear lower top–lower bottom formation, indicating continuation of the downtrend. Weak market breadth and lack of sectoral support further reinforce the negative bias. Despite minor support from select stocks, the overall structure suggests sustained selling pressure in the near term. Key support levels are placed at 70,354 and 69,368, while resistance is seen at 73,541 and 74,527. Any short-term recovery is likely to face resistance at higher levels unless broader sentiment improves significantly.