Market Wrap

The domestic market delivered a dramatic turnaround this week. After weeks of pessimism and a sharp dip following the RBI policy, the Nifty50 staged a powerful recovery - swinging over 1,700 points intraday through the week and closing near the 25,700 mark, up nearly 3.5% on a weekly basis.

Crucially, the index held firmly above 25,500 post-policy, a level now emerging as a key demand zone. The recovery was not narrow broad-based sector participation supported the move, signaling renewed buying confidence rather than short covering.

FMCG stocks continued their relative outperformance, acting as a defensive cushion even as participation in the broader market stayed selective. Meanwhile, PSU stocks remained in focus amid developments surrounding the potential PFC–REC merger, adding a layer of thematic interest.

Despite global caution with the NASDAQ extending losses and Asian markets closing weak while Europe stayed directionless domestic markets showed resilience. The RBI’s decision to keep rates unchanged was largely anticipated, and the market’s stability after the announcement further strengthened sentiment.

Selective stocks with strong Q3 earnings attracted consistent buying, indicating that investors are rewarding earnings visibility in this environment.

Interestingly, signs of risk-off behavior were visible globally as silver and Bitcoin corrected sharply from record highs, suggesting some profit-taking in overheated asset classes.

What's Ahead

Markets are now approaching a decisive technical phase.

• Immediate Resistance : 25,800 – 25,850

• Key Support : 25,500 (must hold for bullish continuation)

A sustained move above the resistance zone could open the door for a fresh leg of upside, while failure to break through may keep the index oscillating within the current range.

Key triggers to watch this week :

1. Developments and finer details of the India–US trade deal (Phase 1)

2. Updates from the US–Iran nuclear negotiations and global geopolitical cues

3. India’s January CPI inflation data

Any positive clarity on trade relations or easing geopolitical tensions can act as a catalyst for a breakout. Conversely, lack of progress or negative surprises could keep the market range-bound with stock-specific action dominating.

For now, the market structure favors the bulls as long as Nifty sustains above 25,500.

Institutional Activity

Market Snapshots

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 ended at 25,693.70 with a modest gain after a volatile session, forming a recovery structure near the day’s high following a dip toward 25,492. The late rebound, driven by heavyweight buying and short covering, signals underlying demand emerging on declines. RSI hovering near 55 reflects improving momentum without entering overbought territory, leaving room for further upside. However, negative breadth (19 advances vs 31 declines) indicates the rally was stock-specific rather than broad-based. As long as the index sustains above the immediate support zone of 25,284–25,026, the bullish structure remains intact. On the upside, a move past 26,119 could trigger momentum toward 26,377, while failure to hold supports may drag the index back into consolidation.

Bank Nifty

BANK NIFTY closed at 60,120.55 after trading largely sideways and witnessing a late-session recovery, indicating accumulation at lower levels. RSI is gradually inching toward 60, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum. Despite the index closing positive, weak breadth (4 advances vs 10 declines) and pressure from PSU banks capped gains, pointing to selective participation led by private lenders. The index continues to hold above its psychological 60,000 mark, which now acts as an immediate pivot. Sustaining above support at 59,184–58,605 will be crucial for maintaining the upward bias. On the upside, resistance at 61,057 and 61,636 remains the key hurdle; a breakout above this zone could invite fresh buying interest.

Nifty Financial Services

NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES outperformed with a 0.43% gain to close at 27,807.10, supported by broad-based strength across NBFCs and private financial names. Positive breadth (11 advances vs 9 declines) and leadership from lending and financing stocks indicate healthier participation compared to other indices. The index is showing signs of gradual upward traction with strong support placed at 27,356–27,078. As long as this base holds, the structure favors continuation of the uptrend. Resistance is seen at 28,256 followed by 28,535, where some supply may emerge. Momentum remains constructive, suggesting dips could be used as buying opportunities.

Sensex

The SENSEX closed at 83,580.40 with a steady gain, supported by strength in FMCG, telecom, and select private banks, while IT stocks capped broader enthusiasm. The index is attempting to build a base above the 83,000 region after recovering from intraday weakness, reflecting buying interest at lower levels. Mildly negative breadth (13 advances vs 17 declines) suggests the move was driven by index heavyweights rather than market-wide participation. Immediate support is placed at 82,164–81,292, which must hold to preserve the positive structure. On the upside, resistance at 84,983 and 85,855 will act as critical zones; a decisive move above these levels can signal continuation of the broader uptrend.