Market Wrap

After the panic-led sell-off on Budget Day, Indian equities found their footing. The Nifty opened gap-down and spent most of the first half stuck in a narrow, nervous range. But the tone flipped in the second half as buyers stepped in aggressively near key support levels.

The index briefly slipped to an intraday low of 24,679, close to the Budget Day low of 24,571, before staging a steady recovery. By the close, the Nifty was up over 1%, ending just shy of the 25,100 mark a technically meaningful rebound after defending the 24,600 support zone.

A key signal of improving sentiment came from volatility. India VIX cooled off sharply, falling 8.14% to 13.87, indicating that the fear triggered by Budget announcements—especially the higher STT on F&O trades—may have already been absorbed by the market.

Sectoral action was led by Oil & Gas stocks, which rallied over 2% as rising crude prices triggered broad-based buying in the pack.

Globally, cues were mixed:

• US markets ended weak on Friday

• Asian markets remained under pressure

• European markets traded firmly in the green

Despite the mixed global setup, domestic value buying dominated, with several beaten-down stocks attracting fresh interest as they entered oversold territory.

What's Ahead

The technical structure now becomes very important.

• Immediate Support: 24,600

• Immediate Resistance: 25,150–25,220 zone

• 200-DMA: 25,164

• Next Upside Level: 25,458 (recent swing high)

The Nifty is now approaching a critical confluence zone near its 200-day moving average. A decisive move above 25,220 could extend the rebound toward 25,458. Failure to cross this zone may keep the move classified as a technical pullback rather than a trend reversal.

Two major events are lined up that could drive volatility:

1. Weekly expiry tomorrow

2. RBI MPC policy meeting (Feb 4–6)

Traders will closely track commentary around rates, liquidity stance, and growth outlook. Combined with global macro cues, this will determine whether the current rebound has legs or fades into consolidation near resistance.

For now, the message from the market is clear:24,600 has become a battlefield that bulls successfully defended. The next test lies near 25,200.

Institutional Activity

Market Snapshots

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 staged a strong rebound, closing at 25,088.40 (+1.06%) after defending the crucial 24,600 zone, with price action showing steady intraday recovery from 24,679 to a high of 25,108. Broad-based participation (39 advances vs 11 declines) and leadership from PSU utilities, infra, and consumption names indicate value buying at lower levels after Budget-related jitters eased. Despite the sharp bounce, the RSI hovering near 40 signals that momentum is still fragile and the move remains technically a recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Immediate supports are placed at 24,787 and 24,593, while resistance is seen at 25,413 and 25,607. A sustained move above 25,400 will be crucial to shift the structure toward bullish continuation; otherwise, the index may consolidate in a broad range amid upcoming event-driven volatility.

Bank Nifty

The NIFTY BANK closed at 58,619 (+0.35%), recovering from early weakness after finding support near 57,830. The index witnessed selective buying across PSU and private banks, with positive breadth (9 advances vs 5 declines), but gains were capped by weakness in Axis Bank and select mid-tier lenders. The RSI near 45 reflects mild improvement in momentum but still lacks strength for a decisive breakout. Immediate support is placed at 58,044 and 57,688, while resistance is seen at 59,194 and 59,550. The structure suggests a gradual pullback recovery within a broader consolidation band, with 59,200 acting as the key hurdle for bullish follow-through.

Nifty Financial Services

The NIFTY Financial Services ended at 26,799 (+0.37%) with strong market breadth (16 advances vs 4 declines), led by capital market and diversified financial stocks. The index is showing signs of accumulation at lower levels, though selective weakness in lending majors capped the pace of recovery. Immediate supports are placed at 26,464 and 26,266, while resistance is seen at 27,104 and 27,302. A move above 27,100 would confirm strength returning to the financial pack, while failure to cross may keep the index range-bound with stock-specific action dominating.

Sensex

The BSE SENSEX surged 943 points (+1.17%) to close at 81,666, supported by strong buying in PSU utilities, infra, and heavyweight stocks, with healthy breadth (25 advances vs 5 declines). The index reclaimed important intraday levels after early volatility, indicating strong institutional participation at lower levels. Immediate support is placed at 80,640 and 80,022, while resistance stands at 82,639 and 83,258. The structure mirrors the Nifty’s recovery pattern, where a sustained move above 82,600 is required to confirm bullish continuation, else the rally risks turning into a consolidation phase near resistance.