Market Wrap

Indian equities closed August on a soft note, with the Nifty50 falling 1.38% month-on-month to hover near the 24,400 mark, pressured by broad-based selling across sectors. The Nifty Oil & Gas index was a notable drag, breaking below its multi-month swing low and 200-day SMA, signaling extended weakness in the space. Global cues were muted, with European markets slipping ~0.5% and Asian peers trading mixed. On the domestic front, India’s Q1FY26 GDP growth of 7.8% topped estimates, underscoring robust consumption and services momentum. However, a 443-point (-1.78%) weekly drop in Nifty has left markets oversold, with heavy short positions building up. Key supports are now seen at 24,400–24,300, aligning with the 8 August swing low of 24,337, while resistance stands at 24,570 and 24,650.

What’s Ahead

Markets will take cues from geopolitical events, including PM Modi’s meeting with President Xi Jinping at the SCO Summit in China and his participation in the 15th India-Japan Annual Summit, both of which may influence trade and diplomatic sentiment. Additionally, the upcoming GST Council meeting on 3–4 September could be a trigger for consumption-driven sectors. With the Nifty in an oversold zone, any positive global or domestic catalyst could spark sharp short-covering rallies, but a decisive reclaim of 24,570–24,650 is essential to reverse the prevailing downside bias.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 fell 74.05 points (-0.3%) to close at 24,426.85, erasing nearly all gains from the previous two weeks and inching closer to the 24,400 support zone. The index traded in a 167-point intraday range, forming a weak structure with RSI slipping below 40, indicating deteriorating momentum. Persistent FII outflows, INR weakness, and US tariff concerns remain key headwinds. A breakdown below 24,234/24,115 could trigger further selling, while resistance is capped at 24,619/24,739.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty slipped 164.7 points (-0.31%) to close at 53,655.65, forming a gravestone doji on the daily chart—a potential reversal signal, but needing confirmation. The index’s 480-point intraday swing highlights volatility, with sentiment dragged by HDFC Bank and Axis Bank, while Kotak Bank provided some support. RSI near 30 signals oversold conditions, the weakest in three months. Immediate support lies at 53,054/52,682, while resistance is placed at 54,257/54,630.

Sensex

The Sensex fell 270.92 points (-0.34%) to settle at 79,809.65, weighed by Reliance, Infosys, and Mahindra & Mahindra, despite resilience in ITC, Asian Paints, and L&T. The index traded in a narrow range, signaling indecision among bears. Support is placed at 79,223/78,860, with resistance at 80,396/80,759.

FinNifty

The Nifty Financial Services index closed 72.6 points lower (-0.28%) at 25,567.7, dragged by insurance stocks and heavyweights like HDFC Bank. Despite some strength in Shriram Finance and Kotak Bank, the sector remains under pressure, with 14 of 20 constituents in red. Near-term support is at 25,321/25,145, while resistance is at 25,780/25,950.