Market Wrap

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for the second consecutive session as geopolitical and trade tensions overshadowed positive global cues. The Sensex declined 308 points to close at 80,710, while the Nifty 50 slipped 0.30% to finish at 24,649.55, weighed down by losses in Reliance, Infosys, and HDFC Bank.

Investor sentiment took a hit after Donald Trump reignited trade concerns, warning of a 25% tariff on Indian imports if re-elected. The aggressive stance spooked the street, particularly for export-oriented sectors such as pharma, IT, and oil & gas, which bore the brunt of the selling. On the contrary, auto and metal stocks managed to eke out marginal gains, helped by positive domestic sales trends and supportive global commodity cues.

Among individual movers, IndusInd Bank surged over 4.5% following investor optimism around the appointment of its new CEO, defying the broader market weakness.

Meanwhile, the latest macro print showed a moderation in India’s services PMI, which cooled to 58.9 in July from 60.5 in June, suggesting some softening in economic activity.

Despite overnight strength on Wall Street — driven by weaker U.S. jobs data that bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut in September — Indian equities failed to mirror the optimism. Asian markets, including Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi, traded higher, but domestic sentiment remained tethered to global trade uncertainty and rising crude oil and dollar index levels.

What's Ahead

Investors will closely monitor the outcome of the RBI’s monetary policy decision tomorrow, where the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, the tone of the commentary on inflation, liquidity, and geopolitical risks could set the market’s near-term direction.

Stock-specific action is likely with earnings releases from Berger Paints, Exide Industries, and Castrol India. In addition, traders will remain on alert for any further escalation in U.S.-India trade rhetoric, which could drive volatility in export-heavy sectors.

Globally, movements in crude oil prices, the dollar index, and U.S. tech stock momentum  especially after strong gains led by Palantir will influence sentiment.

Technically, the Nifty faces immediate support at 24,600–24,400, with resistance placed at 24,800–25,000. A breakout above 25,200 could pave the way for a rally towards 25,500–25,700, but volatility may remain elevated until clarity emerges from policy and trade fronts.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The NIFTY 50 slipped 0.30% to close at 24,649.55, unable to sustain momentum amid renewed tariff concerns and continued weakness in index heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance. Despite the dip, the index managed to hold above the key 24,600 psychological level and remains within the consolidation zone of the past four sessions.

Momentum indicators show signs of fatigue the RSI has declined to 40, suggesting weakening bullish strength. The price action remains range-bound, with near-term support seen at 24,482 and 24,378, while resistance is pegged at 24,817 and 24,921. A decisive close above 25,000 could open the door for a broader upmove toward 25,200–25,500, but until then, traders should brace for sideways action with a slight downward bias.

Bank Nifty

The BANK NIFTY index underperformed, closing 0.47% lower at 55,360.25, led by continued selling in HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. The bearish tone has been reinforced by FII outflows and a lack of earnings support from top constituents. RSI has now slipped below 40 a three-month low highlighting waning momentum and potential for further downside.

Immediate support lies at 54,861, followed by a more crucial floor at 54,553. Resistance remains capped at 55,859 and 56,168. Until the index reclaims 56,500 with strong breadth, the trend remains vulnerable to dips.

Sensex

The SENSEX closed 308 points lower at 80,710.25, down 0.38%, pressured by sharp cuts in Reliance, Infosys, and ICICI Bank. Gains in Titan, IndusInd Bank, and Maruti cushioned the fall but weren’t enough to shift the overall cautious sentiment. Technically, the index remains in a sideways-to-weak structure.

Key support zones to watch are 80,170 and 79,836, while resistance is seen at 81,250 and 81,584. A breakout above 81,600 could inject short-term bullish momentum, but until then, the bias remains defensive.

FINNIFTY

The NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES index ended the session down 0.39% at 26,373.5. While more stocks advanced than declined, losses in HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank dragged the index. The presence of positive action in names like SBI Life, Shriram Finance, and Bajaj Finance suggests some resilience in mid-tier financials.

Support is seen at 26,220 and 25,980, with resistance at 26,586 and 26,810. The broader trend remains consolidative, but a decisive move above 26,800 is required for any sustainable uptrend.