Market Wrap

Indian equities opened the week on a firm footing as the RBI’s policy pause and growth-friendly tone revived sentiment. The central bank kept the repo rate steady at 5.50%, trimmed its inflation forecast, and upgraded GDP projections while announcing sector-specific measures for banks. Markets read the stance as dovish, sparking a rebound after several weak sessions, with indices climbing back above the 24,800 zone. Investors also took note of the RBI’s hint that policy easing could be possible later in the year if inflation stays benign. While FIIs remain net sellers so far in 2025, steady DII flows have cushioned the downside, leaving traders watchful of whether foreign flows could shift direction and reinforce the rally.

What's Ahead

The next session’s trend will hinge on whether today’s rebound attracts genuine follow-through buying or proves a short-covering bounce. Key drivers to track include crude price movement, global risk sentiment, FII flows, and sectoral leadership from banks and autos. On the technical front, near-term support lies at 24,600–24,700, while a decisive move above 24,850–25,000 could open room for further upside. A failure to hold support, however, may reintroduce downside pressure.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 bounced sharply after eight straight losing sessions, closing 225 points higher at 24,836 (+0.92%). Gains were led by autos and financials, with Tata Motors (+5.61%) and Shriram Finance (+5.29%) standing out, while IT and select heavyweights like Reliance and Infosys underperformed. The index traded in a broad range but held firm above 24,600 and finished near the day’s high, reflecting strong intraday momentum. Technically, the RSI has recovered to 50, hinting at stabilisation, with immediate support at 24,633/24,507 and resistance at 25,039/25,165. A move beyond these levels could set the tone for the next leg.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty outperformed, surging 712 points (+1.30%) to close at 55,348, as large lenders like HDFC Bank (+1.5%), ICICI Bank (+1.78%), and Kotak Bank (+3.54%) fueled the rally. The index gained steadily through the session, reclaiming the 55,300 mark and ending near its intraday high. The RSI has inched above 50, suggesting renewed momentum, while the strong close indicates a potential short-term trend reversal. Near-term support is placed at 54,968/54,733, while resistance is seen at 55,728/55,962. Sustained trade above 55,700 could accelerate further upside.

Sensex

The Sensex gained 716 points (+0.89%) to end at 80,983, supported by strong action in banking and auto stocks, with ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, and Tata Motors leading the upmove. Broader market breadth was supportive, with 22 of 30 constituents closing higher, though some heavyweights like Bharti Airtel and SBI capped further gains. The close above 80,900 marks a solid rebound, with immediate support seen at 80,284/79,852 and resistance at 81,682/82,115. A breakout above 81,700 could open room for fresh highs.

FINNIFTY

The Nifty Financial Services index posted strong gains, rising 360 points (+1.38%) to 26,382, with 16 of 20 constituents in the green. Shriram Finance (+5.29%), Kotak Bank (+3.54%), and Axis Bank (+2.47%) were top drivers, while heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank also lent support. Despite minor weakness in SBI Card and Cholamandalam Finance, the index’s broad participation signals improving sentiment in financials. Support lies at 26,061/25,910, while resistance is pegged at 26,631/26,812. A sustained move above resistance could extend the rally further.