Market Wrap

Indian equities closed little changed on October 1, with the Nifty adding just 0.07% to settle around 24,600 after a volatile but narrow session. This marked the eighth straight day of weakness for the index, underscoring a lack of conviction despite intraday relief moves. Sector performance was mixed: PSU banks and metals outperformed, while midcaps stayed largely muted as traders cut risk exposure ahead of Q2 earnings. Technically, Nifty has retraced nearly 78.6% of its 24,404–25,448 rally, with 24,600 emerging as a short-term pivot. Broader sentiment remained cautious, weighed by F&O expiry adjustments and fragile global risk appetite amid concerns of a potential U.S. government shutdown.

What's Ahead

All eyes are now on the RBI’s monetary policy outcome tomorrow, with tone and guidance likely to dictate near-term direction. A decisive break below 24,600 could test the 24,350–24,400 support zone. Beyond policy, FII flows, October-series positioning, and signals around a U.S. shutdown remain critical external drivers. Domestically, Q2 corporate earnings season kicks off shortly, and strong midcap results could provide the trigger for broader participation if sentiment stabilizes.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 slipped for the eighth straight session, closing at 24,611.10, down 23.8 points (-0.10%), as selling in heavyweights like ITC, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance overshadowed gains in Adani Ports, JSW Steel, and UltraTech Cement. The index opened higher but quickly lost ground, trading in a tight range between 24,587 and 24,731 before finishing near the day’s lows. The persistent FII outflows, coupled with the absence of fresh domestic triggers, continue to weigh on sentiment. With the RSI sliding below 40, momentum has clearly turned bearish, raising the risk of further downside. Immediate support is placed at 24,408–24,282, while resistance remains at 24,814–24,940.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty outperformed, closing 174.85 points higher at 54,635.85 (+0.32%), supported by strong gains in PSU banks such as PNB, Canara Bank, and Bank of Baroda. HDFC Bank also added marginally, helping offset weakness in Axis Bank. The index traded in a 290-point range, but its inability to reclaim opening highs suggests intraday profit booking capped the upside. RSI is hovering near the mid-50s, pointing to a consolidative phase rather than strong directional momentum. Key support levels are placed at 54,256–54,021, while resistance lies at 55,015–55,250.

Sensex

The Sensex ended lower by 97.32 points (-0.12%) at 80,267.62, weighed down by declines in heavyweights including Reliance, Bharti Airtel, and ITC. On the positive side, buying in Tata Motors, UltraTech Cement, and Adani Ports helped limit the losses. Market breadth was slightly positive, with 17 gainers against 13 losers, suggesting selective resilience despite weak frontline stocks. The index remains stuck in a narrow range, with near-term support at 79,578–79,152 and resistance at 80,957–81,383. Until a breakout occurs on either side, consolidation is expected to continue.

FINNIFTY

The Nifty Financial Services index eked out modest gains, closing at 26,022.10 (+0.06%). Strength in SBICard, Chola Finance, and ICICI Prudential supported the move, while pressure from ICICI Bank and Axis Bank capped further upside. HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank added marginally, contributing to a mildly positive breadth with 12 advances versus 8 declines. The flat close reflects cautious positioning in the sector, with traders awaiting fresh cues from RBI’s policy outcome. Key support stands at 25,860–25,700, while resistance is seen at 26,180–26,350.