Market Wrap

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and persistent FII selling. The Sensex slipped 308 points to close at 80,710, while the Nifty 50 declined 74 points to settle at 24,649.55. The sell-off was primarily triggered by fresh concerns after Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing India’s continued oil trade with Russia. This spooked foreign investors and weighed on market sentiment.

Pharma and IT stocks led the decline, under pressure from both weak global cues and tariff overhang, while FMCG stocks showed resilience. IndusInd Bank bucked the trend, rallying over 4.7% after announcing a new CEO. Meanwhile, OMCs were under pressure due to rising crude volatility. On the currency front, the rupee weakened slightly, and bond yields eased modestly ahead of the RBI policy meet.

Despite weakness in India, global cues remained largely positive: US indices ended over 0.5% higher overnight on soft jobs data fueling rate cut hopes, and Asian markets traded in the green with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.5%, Korea’s KOSPI up 1.6%, and Australia’s ASX 200 up 1.2%. However, concerns linger over Trump’s preferential trade stance toward Pakistan and Bangladesh, which is raising fears of India’s diplomatic isolation in trade policy circles.

What’s Ahead

Markets now turn their focus to the RBI monetary policy outcome tomorrow. While a status quo on rates is widely expected, investors will be watching closely for guidance on inflation trajectory, liquidity stance, and potential macro risks. A dovish tone could provide a breather to banks and rate-sensitive sectors.

On the geopolitical front, any further clarification or escalation on Trump’s tariff threat could cause sharp reactions, especially in export-heavy and global-facing sectors. Domestically, midcap earnings from Castrol India, Exide Industries, and Berger Paints will be in focus.

Technically, Nifty continues to trade in a tight band, with support at 24,600–24,400 and resistance near 24,800–25,000. A sustained move above 25,200 could trigger fresh buying, while a break below 24,400 may invite further weakness. In the near term, volatility may persist, driven by foreign flows, central bank cues, and shifting global trade dynamics.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

NIFTY 50

The Nifty 50 slipped 0.31% to close at 24,574.20, breaking below the key 24,600 psychological level, a sign of underlying weakness amid broad-based selling pressure. The advance-decline ratio skewed decisively in favor of the bears, with 38 out of 50 constituents ending in the red. IT and pharma stocks were the biggest drags, reflecting continued sectoral pressure amid geopolitical overhang and foreign outflows.

On the technical front, RSI remains below 40, pointing to weak momentum and lack of buying conviction. The index continues to trade in a consolidation zone, but with a negative bias.

• Support levels to watch: 24,406 and 24,303

• Resistance zones: 24,742 and 24,846

A sustained break below 24,400 could trigger deeper downside towards 24,200, while any bounce will face stiff resistance near the 24,800–25,000 zone. Traders should stay cautious with a sell-on-rise approach unless there’s a decisive close above 25,000.

BANK NIFTY

The Bank Nifty index ended flat with a marginal gain of 0.09% at 55,411.15, outperforming broader indices despite mixed cues. Strength in large private banks like HDFC Bank and SBI helped offset weakness in smaller lenders such as AU SFB and IDFC First Bank.

Interestingly, Bank Nifty held firm even as other indices turned lower, suggesting underlying strength and sectoral rotation ahead of the RBI policy. However, the RSI remains below 40, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum.

• Immediate support lies at 54,912 and 54,604

• Resistance is seen at 55,910 and 56,219

A bullish breakout above 56,000 could open room for short-term upside towards 56,500+, while weakness below 54,600 could lead to a retest of recent lows.

SENSEX

The Sensex declined 166 points to close at 80,543.99, falling 0.21%, led by technology stocks, particularly Infosys, HCL Tech, and Tech Mahindra, which dragged the index lower. 18 of the 30 constituents ended in the red, indicating broad participation in the decline.

Despite limited losses, the lack of strong gainers and tepid market breadth suggest investor caution persists. The RSI continues to signal waning momentum.

• Key support levels: 79,993 and 79,651

• Resistance zones: 81,095 and 81,437

A bounce from the 79,900–80,000 area could trigger short covering, but unless 81,400+ is taken out, upside remains capped. Watch for trend confirmation post-RBI policy.

FINNIFTY

Finnifty closed almost flat at 26,371.15, down just 0.01%, as financials saw sectoral indecision. While HDFC Life and ICICI Pru managed to rise, broader sentiment stayed weak due to losses in Bajaj Finance and Jio Financial. With 14 of 20 stocks declining, the tone remains cautious.

Technically, the index is range-bound, and momentum indicators are not showing any clear breakout signs. RSI remains subdued, suggesting a lack of direction.

• Support lies at 26,102 and 25,881

• Resistance can be seen at 26,608 and 26,775

For now, Finnifty is in wait-and-watch mode, and a breakout above 26,600 or breakdown below 26,100 will likely decide the next trend leg.