Market Wrap

Indian equities witnessed a volatile session on monthly expiry day as initial optimism faded through the day. The Nifty 50 opened with a strong gap-up near the 25,000 mark following positive sentiment from the GST Council meeting, but profit booking soon set in, leading to an intraday reversal. The index formed an Open-High pattern and slipped lower before recovering partially to close almost unchanged at 25,936. PSU banking stocks emerged as the clear outperformers, while broader market indices saw selective profit-taking.

Globally, the tone remained mixed the NASDAQ extended gains, while the Dow Jones ended marginally lower, reflecting investor caution ahead of key U.S. economic data. Asian and European markets traded range-bound. Domestically, the spotlight also fell on India’s IPO frenzy, which has already raised a record ₹2.18 lakh crore this year signalling robust investor participation but also sparking debate about stretched valuations and sustainability.

What's Ahead

With expiry out of the way, market focus now shifts to corporate earnings, particularly from banking and auto majors, which could dictate near-term direction. Attention will also be on the Piyush Goyal-led meeting with export councils scheduled for October 29, where any policy signals or export strategy shifts may trigger sector-specific reactions. On the global front, U.S. GDP growth, inflation prints, and central bank commentary remain crucial determinants of sentiment. In the absence of strong domestic triggers, traders are likely to stay cautious and range-bound, awaiting clearer cues from both corporate results and global macro data.

Market Snapshots

Institiutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 closed marginally lower by 0.11% at 25,936.20, reflecting a phase of consolidation after the recent sharp rally. Gains in JSW Steel (+2.92%), Tata Steel (+2.92%), and SBI Life (+1.50%) helped cushion the downside, but weakness in market breadth and muted moves from index heavyweights like HDFC Bank (+0.06%) and Reliance (+0.19%) limited upside momentum. The index traded in a wide range, oscillating between 25,810 and 26,041, before settling flat, forming a doji candlestick pattern — typically signaling indecision at higher levels. With the RSI hovering around 70, the market appears overbought, and a brief consolidation phase would be considered healthy. The immediate support levels are placed at 25,678/25,518, while resistance is seen near 26,195/26,355.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty outperformed, closing 99.85 points higher (+0.17%) at 58,214.10, led by strong action in IndusInd Bank (+3.86%), AU Small Finance Bank (+1.82%), and IDFC First Bank (+1.50%). While HDFC Bank posted marginal gains, weakness in ICICI Bank (-1.05%) and Axis Bank (-0.62%) capped broader upside. PSU banks remained the highlight, rallying on optimism around potential hikes in FII limits for state-owned lenders. The index maintained a positive tone throughout the session, trading within 57,770–58,313, and the RSI above 60 indicates that bullish momentum remains intact. Support is placed at 57,564/57,161, and resistance is seen near 58,865/59,267.

Sensex

The Sensex slipped 150.68 points (-0.18%) to close at 84,628.16, as market breadth turned negative with 21 of 30 constituents ending lower. Selling in Bajaj Finance (-1.38%), Tech Mahindra (-1.05%), and Trent (-1.54%) outweighed modest gains in Tata Steel (+2.92%), L&T (+1.25%), and Kotak Bank (+0.50%). Heavyweights like ICICI Bank and Reliance offered little directional support. The index continues to trade in a consolidation band, suggesting a pause before the next directional move. Near-term support levels are identified at 83,769/83,237, while resistance lies at 85,487/86,019.

FINNIFTY

The Nifty Financial Services index ended 0.24% lower at 27,453.95, dragged by declines in major private sector banks despite strength in insurers and NBFCs. Gains in SBI Life (+1.77%), ICICI General Insurance (+1.64%), and HDFC Life (+1.57%) were offset by losses in ICICI Bank (-1.05%) and Axis Bank (-0.62%), while HDFC Bank remained largely flat. Market breadth was slightly positive, with 11 stocks advancing and 9 declining, but heavyweights’ underperformance kept the index subdued. The setup suggests a sideways bias with near-term support at 27,161/26,980 and resistance at 27,747/27,928.