Key Points

RIC revival under SCO spotlight : At the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, Russia pushed to revive the old Russia–India–China (RIC) trilateral format. China supported the idea, calling it a stabilizing move. India, however, stayed cautious due to ongoing mistrust with Beijing.

Eased India–China tensions : After years of military standoff, recent summits (BRICS 2024 in Kazan and SCO 2025 in Tianjin) saw Modi and Xi agreeing on steps to de-escalate. Talks about restoring direct flights and easing visas suggest a slow thaw in relations since the 2020 Galwan clash.

BRICS/SCO expansion : Both groupings have become larger. BRICS added countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt in 2024, while SCO now has 10 members, including Iran. These moves show the rise of a “Global South” front that wants to balance Western dominance.

Rising India–Russia trade : Trade with Russia has grown sharply under Western sanctions. Russia now supplies about 35% of India’s crude oil imports (up from just ~2% in 2020). The new Chennai–Vladivostok maritime corridor is also boosting sea connectivity and reducing costs.

U.S. pressure and tariffs : The Trump administration has threatened steep tariffs on Indian exports (reportedly up to 50%) and slapped extra charges on Russian oil routed through India. These steps have hurt the rupee and created near-term uncertainty, even as Washington continues to see India as a key Indo-Pacific partner.

Investor implications : Markets reacted cautiously after the SCO summit. Key takeaways: Reliance benefits from cheaper Russian oil, defence stocks watch for new Russia deals, IT exporters face U.S. trade risks, and currency swings are a big factor for portfolios.

Geopolitical Context

The Russia–India–China trilateral idea started in the 1990s under Russian leader Yevgeny Primakov as a way to balance U.S. power. Now, with tensions easing between India and China, Russia is again calling for RIC cooperation. China’s foreign ministry said such cooperation “promotes peace and stability.” For Moscow, the RIC would reduce its isolation under Western sanctions.

Together, India, China, and Russia hold major weight: a combined $54 trillion economy (in PPP terms), 3.1 billion people (about 38% of the world), over 20% of global defence spending, and 35% of energy use. Each has unique strengths – China in manufacturing, Russia in energy, and India in services – and all share an interest in reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Still, mistrust runs deep. India remains wary of China’s actions in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and its ties with Pakistan. After the 2020 Ladakh clash, relations froze as India restricted Chinese investment. A thaw began in late 2024 with agreements on border patrols and fresh dialogue. In July 2025, Foreign Minister Jaishankar’s visit to Beijing confirmed India’s intent to reduce tensions and restart commerce – opening the door for RIC talks at the SCO summit.

Meanwhile, multilateral blocs are shifting. BRICS added six new members in 2024, and SCO expanded to 10 in 2025 under China’s chairmanship. At Tianjin, Modi, Xi, and Putin shared the stage, signaling that the RIC format may return under the SCO umbrella.

U.S. Impact

For Washington, this realignment is troubling. The U.S. has invested heavily in making India its Indo-Pacific partner against China. But in 2025, new tariffs on Indian exports and extra charges on Russian oil shipments hit trade ties hard. India called the measures “unfair and unreasonable” and summoned the U.S. ambassador.

Many analysts now see India–U.S. relations at their most strained in years. India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, uranium, and fertilizer has frustrated Washington. At the same time, the SCO summit highlighted China and Russia’s push for an alternative global order, including “de-dollarization.”

Adding to this, the warming of India–China relations – through flights, visas, and trade talks – reduces the natural divide that the U.S. had hoped to use in countering Beijing.

Investor Angle

Currency : The rupee has been volatile, sliding near ₹88 per U.S. dollar in early August 2025 as oil buyers scrambled for dollars. The RBI has intervened, but a gradual depreciation seems likely.

Energy & Trade : Reliance and other refiners gain from cheaper Russian crude. Connectivity projects like the Chennai–Vladivostok route may lower shipping costs and boost trade.

Aviation & Tourism : The return of India–China flights and easier visas could benefit airlines, hotels, and tourism once timelines firm up.

Defence & IT : Defence firms look for possible fresh orders from Russia, while IT exporters remain vulnerable to U.S. policy shifts on trade and visas.

Final Word

The India–China–Russia trilateral talks mark a turning point in Asia’s power balance. For India, engaging with both Moscow and Beijing provides strategic options beyond the West, while still keeping ties with the U.S. alive.

The data is clear: India–Russia trade is booming, India–China ties are cautiously improving, and India–U.S. relations are facing friction. The coming months will show whether RIC becomes a real platform or just a symbolic idea.

For investors, flexibility is key – watching energy deals, currency trends, and official statements will be crucial in navigating this shifting landscape.