Market Wrap

Indian equity markets ended last week on a cautious note, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping 0.69% to close just below the 25,500 mark. The broader market traded in a narrow range, reflecting a lack of fresh triggers and growing investor hesitation ahead of major global events. Despite some early resilience, selling pressure in key sectors, especially financials, weighed on the indices and capped any meaningful upside.

One bright spot, however, was the Nifty Oil & Gas index, which outperformed the broader market. The sector saw broad-based buying interest, supported by stable crude prices and improving sentiment around supply chain normalization. Its strong weekly close suggests continued upward momentum in the near term, especially if geopolitical risks remain in check and global energy prices stay within a manageable range.

Globally, markets echoed similar caution. Asian indices closed with minor losses as investors grappled with geopolitical uncertainties and mixed macroeconomic signals. Thin trading volumes, partly due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, also added to the subdued tone. With a tariff announcement expected from Donald Trump around 9 July, global equities have become increasingly sensitive to any fresh developments on the international trade front.

What’s Ahead

As the new trading week kicks off, markets are expected to take cues from a mix of global macroeconomic data, domestic developments, and corporate earnings. The spotlight will be on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and China’s inflation data, both of which could influence global risk appetite and shape expectations for interest rate trajectories. Any major surprises on these fronts may prompt volatility across global equity markets.

Back home, the progression of the monsoon will remain a critical factor, especially for rural demand and inflation expectations. Additionally, the start of the Q1 earnings season will begin to shape investor sentiment for the rest of July, with markets looking for cues on demand resilience, margin pressures, and management commentary.

While the Nifty remains in a structurally positive zone after its strong performance in June, the near-term outlook points to a potential consolidation phase. Traders are likely to stay selective, with rotational interest emerging in defensives like FMCG and autos, while oil & gas may continue its outperformance. A meaningful directional move may only emerge once clarity is established on key global and domestic variables later this week.

Market Snapshots

Institutional Activity

Sectoral Performance

Technical Outlook

NIFTY 50

The NIFTY 50 ended the session with a modest gain of 0.22% at 25,461.0, forming a bullish hammer pattern—a potential signal for short-term reversal after recent consolidation. The index found support near its near-term EMA trendline, which indicates underlying buying interest despite intraday selling pressure. The RSI stands at a healthy 62, suggesting the index is still in a neutral-to-positive zone. Going forward, immediate support lies at 25,240, followed by a stronger floor at 25,103. On the upside, 25,682 and 25,819 remain the key resistance levels. A decisive close above 25,682 could shift momentum in favor of the bulls. However, sentiment may remain cautious ahead of key global triggers this week.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty climbed 239.95 points or 0.42% to close at 57,031.9, buoyed by gains in major private banks like ICICI Bank and AU Bank. The index also formed a bullish hammer candlestick, suggesting that recent profit booking may have run its course. Though the index briefly breached its near-term EMA trendline intraday, it closed well above it, indicating resilient support. RSI at 60 supports the likelihood of a short-term rebound. Key support levels are now seen at 56,524 and 56,209, while 57,540 and 57,854 are crucial resistance levels. A move past 57,540 could signal a resumption of the broader uptrend.

SENSEX

The SENSEX registered a gain of 0.23%, closing at 83,432.89, driven by strength in IT majors and private banking stocks. The broader setup remains stable, despite sector-specific weakness dragging on individual stocks like Trent and Tata Steel. Technically, the index is trading above key moving averages and has maintained bullish bias over the short term. Immediate support levels are seen at 82,748 and 82,325, while 84,117 and 84,541 serve as important resistance points. Sustained buying in defensives and index heavyweights is necessary to push SENSEX toward a fresh breakout.

FINNIFTY

The Nifty Financial Services index surged 0.49% to end at 26,866.3, reflecting strong sentiment across lending and insurance names. The index structure looks constructive, supported by rising participation and relative strength across key constituents. ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finance led the rally, while a few insurers like SBI Life showed slight weakness. RSI remains supportive, and the price action suggests buyers are likely to defend declines. Key support levels are placed at 26,635 and 26,480, while resistance is seen at 27,012 and 27,180. A close above 27,012 could lead to further upside, supported by positive sentiment in the broader financial space.