Global oil markets are once again confronting the possibility of structurally elevated crude prices as JPMorgan projected that Brent crude could remain above the $100-per-barrel mark this year even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations immediately. The forecast reflects growing market concerns that geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East are no longer temporary shocks but part of a broader phase of prolonged supply uncertainty.

The latest assessment comes after Brent crude surged above $105 per barrel following remarks by US President Donald Trump, who described Iran’s response to Washington’s peace proposals as “totally unacceptable.” The escalation revived fears over the stability of oil transit routes in the Gulf region, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil supplies move daily.

What makes the latest warning notable is that JPMorgan’s projection is not entirely dependent on a prolonged closure of Hormuz. Instead, the bank appears to be pricing in broader supply-side stress across global energy markets. Saudi Aramco has separately cautioned that disruptions in the oil market could persist until 2027 even if shipping routes normalize soon, signaling that producers themselves are preparing for a tighter and more volatile supply environment.

The concern extends beyond immediate military or diplomatic tensions. Years of underinvestment in upstream oil exploration, OPEC+ production discipline, sanctions on key producers, and fragile spare capacity have collectively reduced the market’s ability to absorb shocks. Even temporary interruptions now have an outsized impact on prices because inventories remain relatively constrained compared to historical standards.

For India, sustained crude prices above $100 carry significant macroeconomic implications. India imports more than 85 percent of its crude oil requirements, making the economy highly sensitive to fluctuations in global energy prices. A prolonged rise in Brent crude can widen the current account deficit, weaken the rupee, and increase imported inflation at a time when policymakers are attempting to maintain growth momentum.

Higher oil prices also complicate the inflation outlook for the Reserve Bank of India. Fuel costs directly influence transportation, logistics, manufacturing, aviation, paints, chemicals, and consumer goods pricing. If crude remains elevated for an extended period, it may limit the RBI’s flexibility on interest rate decisions and liquidity management despite moderating domestic inflation trends in recent months.