Global equity markets have entered the new phase of the year with visible caution, driven by geopolitical tensions, regulatory uncertainty across regions, and questions around the durability of global growth. However, this risk-aware environment has not shaken Matt Orton, Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management, who believes India is well-placed to outperform the broader emerging market universe.

Speaking to CNBC TV18 in a recent interview, Orton outlined a strategy that is less about chasing fresh ideas and more about sharpening exposure to businesses that have already delivered and continue to show structural resilience. His stance reflects a broader institutional mindset heading into 2026 - stay invested, but refine positioning rather than overhaul portfolios.

Emerging markets have struggled to build sustained momentum over the past year, as capital flows remained sensitive to US interest rate expectations and geopolitical flare-ups. India, however, has increasingly been viewed as a relative safe harbour, supported by domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and balance-sheet repair across key sectors. Orton’s optimism fits into this narrative, particularly at a time when global investors are reassessing risk-adjusted returns across EMs.

Rather than adding new names, Orton is focused on adjusting weights within his existing holdings. This approach signals confidence in prior stock selection while acknowledging that relative performance and valuations require active management.

Orton reiterated confidence in stocks that have already performed well, including Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank, and Adani Ports. According to him, these companies are not momentum trades but structurally sound businesses capable of sustaining performance into the next year. His commentary suggests that strong execution, balance-sheet strength, and sector positioning continue to matter more than short-term macro noise.

At the same time, Orton is reassessing exposure to certain sectors and names where risk-reward dynamics have shifted. His caution on InterGlobe Aviation, despite a meaningful stock correction, highlights a disciplined approach to regulatory risk. While acknowledging IndiGo’s operational efficiency, he flagged the lack of clarity around potential regulatory changes as a material overhang for margins, making him reluctant to buy the dip until policy visibility improves.

On the other end of the spectrum, Orton’s view on IT services is turning more constructive after a prolonged period of scepticism through most of 2025. He identified Tata Consultancy Services as a stock to watch, pointing to early signs of margin improvement potential through acquisitions and a sharper focus on implementing next-generation technologies.

For Indian markets, Orton’s outlook supports a continuation of selective leadership rather than broad-based rallies. Banking, autos, infrastructure-linked plays, and defence-aligned industries remain structurally supported, while sectors exposed to regulatory unpredictability may see valuation caps despite operational strength.

His cautious stance on aviation highlights that regulatory risk can override operational efficiency in capital-intensive sectors. Meanwhile, the improving tone on IT services suggests that even laggard sectors could regain relevance if margin levers and technology adoption translate into earnings traction.

From a market perspective, India’s relative attractiveness within emerging markets could help sustain foreign institutional interest, especially if global investors continue to differentiate between EMs rather than treating them as a homogeneous asset class.